Showing posts with label falls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label falls. Show all posts

Monday, 5 December 2011

FOREX-Euro falls 1st time in 5 days ahead of key events=2

Currency bid prices at 2:18 p.m. EST (1918 GMT). All data taken from Reuters calculated from the levels in the previous New York (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) session.

Last US Close Pct YTD Pct 2010

Dec. 1 Change Change Close ------------------------------------------------------------- Euro/dlr 1.3398 1.3463 -0.48 +0.16 1.3377 Dlr/yen 77.940 77.740 +0.26 -3.96 81.150 Euro/yen 104.43 104.60 -0.16 -3.87 108.63 Dlr/swiss 0.9206 0.9154 +0.57 -1.38 0.9335 Stg/dlr 1.5590 1.5693 -0.66 -0.06 1.5599 Dlr/cad 1.0181 1.0139 +0.41 +2.15 0.9967 Aus/dlr 1.0221 1.0227 -0.06 +0.18 1.0203 Euro/swiss 1.2334 1.2323 +0.09 -1.23 1.2488 Euro/stg 0.8593 0.8579 +0.16 +0.24 0.8572 Nzd/dlr 0.7780 0.7782 -0.03 -0.14 0.7791 Dlr/Norw 5.7890 5.8036 -0.25 -0.56 5.8218 Euro/Norw 7.7548 7.8131 -0.75 -0.45 7.7895 Dlr/Swed 6.7557 6.7704 -0.22 +0.68 6.7098 Euro/Swed 9.0492 9.1154 -0.73 +0.76 8.9809 All spots Tokyo spots Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) spots Volatilities Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ World central bank news Economic Forecasts... Official rates... Forex Diary....... Top events........ Diaries........... Diaries Index........ Press Digests..... Polls on G7 economies.. European markets......


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Sunday, 4 December 2011

FOREX-Euro falls 1st time in 5 days ahead of key events

* U.S. unemployment rate falls to 8.6 percent

* ECB's Stark says crisis cure needed to avoid disaster

* Euro reverses gains ahead of key event risks next week

Updates prices, adds quotes, links and graphics, changes byline)

NEW YORK (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) , Dec 2 (Reuters) - The euro fell against the dollar for the first time in five sessions on Friday, with investors wary of placing aggressive bets in favor of the currency ahead of a European Central Bank meeting and a European Union summit next week.

The euro zone's common currency posted sharp gains after data showed the U.S. unemployment rate fell to a 2-1/2 year low in November (Stuttgart: A0Z24E - news) . Reports the ECB may lend to weak euro zone countries through the International Monetary Fund in hopes of easing the the debt crisis also supported it earlier in the global session.

But the euro reversed course on various market rumors, including one of a potential downgrade of Spain. Investors were also hesitant to buy the single currency in the aftermath of a strong rally this week.

"It's a very rumor-driven market so there's a lot of caution," said David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC (MCX: RBCI.ME - news) Capital Markets in Toronto. "We also have an ECB meeting next week, which may probably cut rates," he added, noting a potential negative for the euro.

The ECB hinted Thursday it was ready to move more aggressively to tackle the crisis if regional politicians agree on much tighter budget controls, though it stopped short of detailing what exact measures it would take.

Leaders must urgently find a solution to the euro zone debt crisis or there will be widespread macroeconomic and financial disaster, Juergen Stark, one of the European Central Bank's top policymakers, warned on Friday.

The euro fell as low as $1.33630, blowing through stops at $1.34150. It was last at $1.3398 on trading platform EBS, down 0.5 percent on the day. It rose to a 10-day high of $1.35505 immediately after the U.S. non-farm payrolls report.

The U.S. unemployment rate fell to a 2-1/2 year low in November, though the pace of hiring remained too slow to suggest a significant quickening of the recovery.

The report could temper the appetite among some Federal (SES: E1:F20.SI - news) Reserve officials to ease monetary policy further.

"I guess with the superficial improvements in the U.S. jobs report, that suggests a third round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve is further away, which is a positive for the dollar," said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey.

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INSTANT VIEW- US jobless rate drops

Graphic - U.S. payrolls: http://link.reuters.com/suf45s

Graphic - U.S. jobless rate, payroll change. http://r.reuters.com/was53s

Graphic - U.S. nonfarm payrolls by type. http://r.reuters.com/kus53s

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

Despite the euro's drop, it was on pace to end the week higher by about 0.4 percent, its best weekly performance since late October.

Morgan Stanley (EUREX: DWDF.EX - news) said it was using the euro's gains this week to establish a renewed bearish position on the single currency, sticking to its view of more weakness in the currency in the midterm.

"We continue to look for the market to be disappointed by the European Summit," Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note, adding that they expected the euro to underperform commodity currencies, particularly the Canadian and Australian dollars.

The dollar rose 0.4 percent against a currency basket , to 78.646. Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.3 percent to 77.94 yen.

With the U.S. jobs data out of the way, markets were awaiting a European Union summit set for Dec. 9 for signs of progress on the debt crisis.

French and German leaders are to meet on Dec. 5 to outline joint proposals to be discussed at the EU meeting, which is viewed as yet another make-or-break meeting for the 2-year-old currency bloc.

(Additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Dan Grebler)


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Thursday, 17 November 2011

FOREX-Euro falls for 2nd straight day on contagion fears

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* Italian, Spanish yields rise as contagion fears grow

* Investors doubt Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) 's ability to contain debt crisis

* Euro/dollar nears support at $1.3481, yen strengthens (Adds comments, details, updates prices)

NEW YORK (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) , Nov 15 (Reuters) - The euro slipped against the dollar for a second straight day and hit a five-week low against the yen on Tuesday, with more selling expected on fears the euro zone's debt crisis is spreading across the region.

Yields on Italian benchmark 10-year bonds climbed back above the key 7 percent level widely deemed unsustainable and Spanish borrowing costs rose ahead of the launch of a new 10-year bond on Thursday. [GVD/EUR] In a worrying sign of contagion, the spread of French, Belgian and Austrian 10-year bond yields over German Bunds all hit their highest levels since the euro's launch in 1999, while the equivalent Dutch spread hit its widest since early 2009.

Adding to bearish sentiment, the German ZEW survey showed analyst and investor sentiment slumped in November (Stuttgart: A0Z24E - news) , the ninth monthly decline in a row. It said political and economic problems in Greece and Italy had raised uncertainty about the future. For details see [ID:nF9E7JH017].

"The collective markets' greatest fear has materialized: contagion is now reality," said Christopher Vecchio, currency analyst at DailyFX.com. "The seven percent threshold was supposed to be the line in the sand that the supranational European body would not allow Italian yields to cross, and for the second time in less than a week, Italian 10-year bonds were above this level."

The euro fell 0.6 percent to $1.3544, having dropped to a session trough of $1.3495 according to Reuters data. Key downside support lies around $1.3481, a one-month low set last week.

The euro zone common currency also lost 0.7 percent to 104.35 yen , after sliding as low as 103.95, the weakest since Oct (KOSDAQ: 039200.KQ - news) . 10.

DISORDERLY OUTCOME

The market's optimism over the new technocrat-led governments in Greece and Italy proved short-lived as investors refocused on worries about the ability of European policymakers to contain the deepening crisis, which German Chancellor Angela Merkel called Europe's "toughest hour since World War Two."

Lee Hardman, currency economist at BTMU in London, expects the euro to fall to around $1.25 over the next six months, saying there was a risk the market would start to price in a "disorderly outcome" to the crisis.

"The ultimate outcome is still unclear -- whether the euro zone moves closer to fiscal integration or whether there is a more disorderly break-up," Hardman said.

Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto, said repatriation flows have temporarily supported the euro but they will dry up, removing an important piece of support.

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Monday showed speculators trimmed bets against the euro in the week to Nov. 8, suggesting diminishing scope for a short-covering rebound in the common currency. [IMM/FX] The dollar slipped 0.1 percent to 77.02 yen , hovering around its 50-day simple moving average at 76.95 yen. It had earlier jumped to a high of 77.51 yen on trading platform EBS.

Dollar/yen has now broken through the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the move on intervention on an intraday basis for three straight days.

Traders said investors would likely sell the dollar on rallies as the yen was well placed to gain in a risk-averse environment despite the possibility of Japanese action to curb the yen's strength.

The dollar climbed to a five-week peak against the Swiss franc . (Reporting by Nick Olivari and Wanfeng Zhou; Editing by James Dalgleish)


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FOREX-Euro falls vs US dollar with more losses eyed

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* Italy, Greece appoint new government leaders

* Italian debt yields resume rise after auction

* Yen strongest since last intervention by Japan (EUREX: FMJP.EX - news) (Updates prices, adds details)

NEW YORK (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) , Nov 14 (Reuters) - The euro slid against the U.S. dollar on Monday as new governments in Italy and Greece failed to ease fears about the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis, a crisis that German Chancellor Angela Merkel termed Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) 's "toughest hour since World War Two."

Italy paid a euro-era high price to sell five-year bonds on Monday, just a day after former European Commissioner Mario Monti was named to lead the country -- a move that had been hoped would help restore investor confidence.

News that Italian Treasury Director General Vittorio Grilli is considering resigning as early as Tuesday to take up a job in the private sector with investment bank J.P. Morgan (KOSDAQ: 019990.KQ - news) , according to sources, added to the euro's woes. For details, see [ID:nR1E7MC00A]

In Greece, new Prime Minister Lucas Papademos, a former European Central Bank vice president, will have to win Wednesday's confidence vote in his cabinet before meeting euro-zone finance ministers in Brussels on Thursday, as uncertainty persisted over whether Athens will receive the next tranche of aid to avoid a default. [ID:nL5E7ME25X]

Papademos said on Monday that Greece's only choice was to remain in the euro zone, and the country had to widen its tax base and fight rampant tax evasion, a problem identified by economists as a serious hindrance to Greece's budget performance. [ID:nA8E7MA013]

"Like many times before, the Europeans delivered the necessary policy response to avert a meltdown with both Italy and Greece moving to install national unity governments, led by technocrats," said Mark McCormick, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

But "this is unlikely to be a silver bullet and many questions still remain," he said. "Outside of brief short- covering rallies, we expect the euro to remain under pressure in the coming weeks, and ultimately end the year around $1.29."

German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that Europe faced its "toughest hour since World War Two" and urged her party to set aside misgivings about the euro and accept closer political integration as a solution to the bloc's deepening debt crisis.

But she offered no new ideas for resolving the crisis that has forced bailouts of Greece, Ireland (Xetra: A0Q8L3 - news) and Portugal, and stirred doubts about the survival of the 13-year-old currency area. [ID:nLDE7AD01R]

The euro fell 0.8 percent to $1.3636 . It had fallen as low as $1.3590 on Reuters data after breaking below support at its 100-week moving average around $1.3638. It also slid 0.8 percent to 105.15 yen .

Further downside support lies around $1.3360, the low in September, followed by $1.3145, the October low, technical analysts said. Resistance is seen near $1.3870, its high set on Nov. 1, with offers from Asian sovereign investors reportedly just above that.

The euro-zone common currency briefly pared losses after an auction of 3 billion euros of five-year Italian bonds drew decent demand, despite yields hitting 6.29 percent, a high since the euro was introduced in 1999.

But the relief was short-lived. [ID:nL5E7ME1WB1]

In a sign that the debt crisis may spread further, Spanish 10-year bond yields rose above 6 percent on Monday for the first time since the European Central Bank started to buy the country's bonds in August.[ID:nL5E7ME2C8]

YEN STRENGTH

The dollar was unchanged at 77.12 yen , after earlier falling as low as 76.811 on electronic trading platform EBS , its lowest since Japan's massive yen-selling intervention efforts on Oct (KOSDAQ: 039200.KQ - news) . 31.

Dollar/yen has now broken through the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the move on intervention on an intraday basis both Friday and Monday.

"Intervention concerns are likely to see yen advances tempered as Japanese officials continue to eye the FX markets for 'excess speculation,' with pledges from Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda that actions will be taken to aggressively combat 'excessive currency fluctuations,'" said Michael Boutros, currency analyst at DailyFX.com.

The head of the International Monetary Fund said on Saturday that Japan's recent currency intervention aimed at curbing excess volatility was in line with the spirit of G7 and G20, although concerted action is the most efficient way. [ID:nT9E7HU00M]

Traders said interventions, particularly unilateral actions such as Japan's, are unlikely to have a long-term impact and the dollar may slip on any signs of problems in the U.S. economy. (Reporting by Nick Olivari and Wanfeng Zhou; Editing by Jan Paschal)


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Wednesday, 16 November 2011

FOREX-Euro falls for 3rd day vs dollar on debt worries

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* Euro hits five-week low, eyes Oct (KOSDAQ: 039200.KQ - news) . trough around $1.3140

* ECB's buying Italian bonds fails to bring down yields

* More euro losses seen as crisis spreads to core Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) (Updates prices, adds comment, details, changes dateline, previous LONDON)

NEW YORK (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) , Nov 16 (Reuters) - The euro fell for a third straight session against the dollar to hit a five-week low on Wednesday as rising French and Italian borrowing costs heightened worries about contagion in the euro zone debt crisis.

The European Central Bank's buying of Italian and Spanish bonds brought only temporarily relief and yields resumed climbing after the intervention stopped as investors doubted how much the ECB can buy to support the bond market.

Analysts expect the euro to remain under pressure in the near term as troubles in the periphery spread to core nations in Europe and as policymakers remain behind the curve in finding a solution to the region's debt problems.

"The outlook for the euro is worsening gradually because clearly there's been contagion in the euro zone debt markets," said Samarjit Shankar, managing director of global FX strategy at BNY Mellon in Boston.

The euro fell 0.3 percent to $1.3493 , having earlier dropped as low as $1.3427 on Reuters data, the weakest level since Oct. 10.

The common currency also came under pressure after Italian bank Unicredit (MDD: UCG.MDD - news) said it would ask the ECB to extend its access to funding, stoking concerns about the health of euro zone banks. [ID:nL5E7MG1ZJ]

"We are likely to stay in a fairly stressed environment until banks and asset managers have sufficiently deleveraged," said Sebastien Galy, currency strategist at Societe Generale (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) in London. "It continues to suggest that euro/dollar is steadily heading for the $1.3140 October low."

Traders said the euro's latest decline was driven by selling from macro funds. Against the yen, the single currency slipped 0.3 percent to 103.93 yen, having fallen as low as 103.37 yen, its lowest since Oct. 10.

ECB purchases initially pushed Italian yields down to around 6.83 percent and sparked a rebound in the euro. But yields later climbed back above 7 percent, a level widely deemed unsustainable.

In a sign that the debt crisis is spreading to the core, the yield spread between French 10-year government bonds over German Bunds rose to its highest since the euro's launch in 1999. France is the second-largest economy in the euro zone.

ECB ROLE

France and Germany, Europe's two central powers, clashed over whether the European Central Bank should intervene to halt the euro zone's accelerating debt crisis as modest bond purchases failed to stop the rout.

A French government spokeswoman said the ECB's role is to ensure the stability of the euro, but also the financial stability of Europe. But German Chancellor Angela Merkel made clear Berlin would resist pressure for the central bank to take a bigger role in resolving the debt crisis. [ID:nL5E7MG3AP]

In Italy, Mario Monti formed a new technocrat government on Wednesday, but analysts were cautious as to whether the move would be enough to calm financial markets.

"A new government is coming in Italy but there's still no improvement on bond markets so it's hard to see what can be done in the short term to reverse this," said Lutz Karpowitz, currency strategist at Commerzbank (Other OTC: CRZBF.PK - news) in Frankfurt.

Some in the market see further downside for the euro as funding strains among European banks are evident with euro/dollar three-month cross currency basis swap spreads widening to a level not seen since late 2008.

Against the yen, the dollar slipped 0.1 percent to 76.99 , while the dollar rose 0.3 percent to 78.132 against a basket of currencies . (Additional reporting by Naomi Tajitsu in London; Editing by Dan Grebler)


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FOREX-Euro falls to 5-week lows as debt crisis deepens

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* Euro hits five-week low, eyes Oct (KOSDAQ: 039200.KQ - news) trough around $1.3140

* ECB's buying Italian bonds fails to bring down yields

* More euro losses seen as crisis spreads to core Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) (Updates prices)

NEW YORK (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) , Nov 16 (Reuters) - The euro fell to five-week lows against the dollar and yen on Wednesday as rising French and Italian borrowing costs heightened concerns about contagion in the euro zone debt crisis.

The European Central Bank's purchase of Italian and Spanish bonds brought only temporary relief. Once intervention stopped, yields resumed climbing as investors doubted how much the ECB can buy to support the bond market.

Analysts expect the euro to remain under pressure as troubles in the periphery appear to be spreading to core nations in Europe with France the latest target of investor angst as policy makers remain behind the curve in finding a solution to the region's debt problems.

"The euro/dollar is being pushed and pulled by many things in the market of late, but ECB intervention in the Italian and Spanish bond markets seems to give the pair some support and comfort today," said Greg Michalowski, chief currency analyst at FXDD, a retail brokerage in New York. "Tomorrow Spain is scheduled to sell 4 billion 10 year bonds. How that auction goes will give the market a clue as to the real demand from investors."

The euro was last down 0.3 percent at $1.3495 , after earlier dropping as low as $1.3427 on Reuters data, the weakest level since Oct. 10.

Against the yen, it down 0.4 percent at 103.87 yen , after earlier hitting 103.37 yen.

The common currency also came under pressure after Italian bank UniCredit (MDD: UCG.MDD - news) said it would ask the ECB to extend its access to funding, stoking concerns about the health of euro zone banks. For details, see [ID:nL5E7MG237]

"Markets are slowly losing their will to believe in an EU solution, and this is being reflected in the debt market," said Paul Bregg, a currency trader at Western Union Business Solutions in Denver, Colorado.

Traders cited euro selling from macro funds. Samarjit Shankar, managing director of global FX strategy at BNY Mellon in Boston, said net inflows into the euro "have virtually dried up, with the seeming hesitation on the part of even the more tactical market participants."

The dollar slipped 0.1 percent to 76.98 yen . Dollar/yen has now broken through the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the move on the Oct 31 intervention on an intraday basis for four straight days.

ECB ROLE

Bond purchases by the ECB initially pushed Italian yields down to around 6.83 percent and sparked a rebound in the euro. But yields later climbed back above 7 percent, a level widely deemed unsustainable.

Mario Monti, a former European commissioner, was sworn in as Italy's prime minister and formed a new technocrat government on Wednesday, but analysts were skeptical the move would be enough to calm financial markets.

In a sign the debt crisis is spreading to Europe's core economies, the yield spread between French 10-year government bonds over German Bunds hit its highest level since the euro's launch in 1999 before easing. France is the second-largest economy in the euro zone.

This made for a difficult backdrop for auctions of up to 11 billion euros of Spanish and French bonds Thursday. The Spanish sale of new 10-year debt is likely to struggle as the country's finances come under scrutiny days before a general election.

France and Germany clashed over whether the European Central Bank (Other OTC: CBSU.PK - news) should intervene to halt the debt crisis.

A French government spokeswoman said the ECB's role is to ensure the stability of the euro and also the financial stability of Europe. But German Chancellor Angela Merkel made clear Berlin would resist pressure for the central bank to take a bigger role in resolving the debt crisis. [ID:nL5E7MF410]

Western Union (NYSE: WU - news) 's Bregg said the rise in French borrowing costs was especially worrying. "Rumors of a debt downgrade are circling daily. This is not good news, especially when France is one of the main funding countries for the bailout fund and Europe's number two economy." (Reporting by Nick Olivari and Wanfeng Zhou, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)


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