FOREX-Euro relief proves fleeting; yen hits 6-mth low vs dollar

* Euro backs off previous day's high

* Markets take profits on recent gains following Greek bailout deal

* Dollar/yen stays firm, touches fresh 6-month high (Updates prices, adds comments)

SINGAPORE, Feb 22 (Reuters) - The euro struggled to make headway on Wednesday, having retreated from near two-week highs as optimism over the long-awaited Greek bailout deal quickly gave way to concerns about economic growth and implementation risks.

The yen dipped against the dollar and touched a fresh six-month low, staying on the defensive after the Bank of Japan (EUREX: FMJP.EX - news) 's surprise monetary easing last week.

The euro held steady from late U.S. trade on Tuesday at $1.3232, down from Tuesday's high of $1.3293, which was the euro's highest level since Feb. 9. It faces resistance at $1.3308, the 100-day moving average.

"The euro had priced in a lot of the good news, in the sense that it had priced in already some form of agreement," said Mitul Kotecha, head of global foreign exchange strategy for Credit Agricole (Milan: ACA.MI - news) in Hong Kong.

"It's not surprising to see it struggling to break higher," Kotecha added.

While Greece's aid package helped ease fears of an immediate default, the country's economic outlook remained anything but rosy, a problem that could yet derail its efforts to meet tough cost-cutting measures.

Parliaments in three countries that have been most critical of bailouts - Germany, the Netherlands and Finland - must now approve the package. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who caused an outcry by suggesting that Greece was a "bottomless pit", said he was confident it would be passed.

The dollar index edged up 0.1 percent to 79.136 as the euro floundered.

Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.3 percent to 79.961 yen at one point, its highest level since early August 2011.

The dollar has rallied roughly 5 percent from lows around 76.00 yen hit in early February, spurred in part by yen-weakness after the Bank of Japan's surprise easing last week.

"The pace of the yen's move in recent days looks unsustainable. But the yen has the ability to weaken further, although it's not going to do so in a straight line," analysts at Societe Generale (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) wrote in a note.

A trader for a Japanese bank in Tokyo said dollar offers were lined up at levels above 80 yen, while dollar buyers such as Japanese importers were placing bids at levels around 79 yen.

The dollar is now testing strong technical resistance from a cloud on the weekly Ichimoku chart.

The dollar has not managed to stay above the weekly cloud for any sustained period since mid-2007, and a breach of that resistance could give the dollar additional momentum against the yen.

The dollar has clawed above the bottom of the cloud at 79.73 yen, and faces more resistance at the cloud top, which comes in at 80.94 this week.

The Australian dollar held steady at $1.0658, more than a full cent lower from this week's high of $1.0817.

The Aussie dollar showed limited reaction to data showing that China's manufacturing sector contracted in February for the fourth straight month as new export orders dropped sharply in the face of the euro area debt crisis.

The HSBC flash purchasing managers index, the earliest indicator of China's industrial activity, rose to a four-month-high at 49.7 in February. The PMI has been below 50, which demarcates expansion from contraction, for most of the last eight months.

China's economic outlook is a focal point for market players, who fret that risk sentiment could take a hit if the country's economic growth were to slow down too sharply. (Additional reporting by Ian Chua in Sydney and Hideyuki Sano in Tokyo; Editing by Ramya Venugopal)

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FOREX-Euro off highs as Greek understanding euphoria wanes

Tue Feb 21, 2012 4:12am EST

* Euro’s swell fizzles out on doubts about implementation

* Stops above $1.3300 still intact

* Dollar/yen hovering nearby 6-1/2 mth highs

By Anirban Nag

LONDON, Feb 21 (Reuters) – The euro reason onto gains on
Tuesday due to service over Greece’s securing of a rescue understanding to
avoid a pell-mell default, yet distrustful investors were looking to
sell into a rebound on doubts either it creates a country’s debt
burden any some-more manageable.

With many of a good news labelled in for a moment, traders
said chances that a euro will arise above a pivotal resistance
level of around $1.3307 were small. Still, with many speculators
already using bearish positions a pointy dump was unlikely.

The euro was marginally aloft on a day during $1.3250, coming
under vigour early in a European event on offered by
Middle-eastern investors and pulling behind from a event high of
$1.3293 reached after a success of a talks overnight.

A garland of involuntary buy orders to extent waste above
$1.3300 for those betting on euro debility were intact, with
near tenure insurgency during a 100-day relocating normal of $1.3307.
On a downside, bids were cited during $1.3220-30 and around
$1.3200, with stops next a event low during $1.3185.

“It has been a service convene for a euro, yet there are so
many caveats, so many risks to implementation,” pronounced Jeremy
Stretch, conduct of banking plan a CIBC World Markets.

“One jump has been cleared, yet many some-more left to be
cleared and for now it looks like a euro will trade next that
100-day relocating average.”

After 13 hours of talks, euro section financial ministers sealed
a 130-billion euro understanding and finalised measures to cut Greece’s
debt to 120.5 percent of sum domestic product by 2020. But the
measures are unpopular among a Greeks and might emanate social
unrest in a nation that is due to reason an choosing in April.

Also, each supervision in a banking kinship will also have
to approve a package. Given Greece is in a low recession, the
tough measures also usually devalue a broader mercantile woes and
the nation could still need some-more supports to cut a debt.

Overall, analysts were disturbed that Europe still faces an
uphill conflict to understanding with mercantile problems that are expected
to expostulate a euro section into retrogression during a start of this year.

That stands in contrariety to a U.S. economy, that has
regained some strength in new months.

“When we demeanour during a mercantile fundamentals, a dollar is
in a enlightened position. we consider a euro is expected to tumble to
around $1.30,” pronounced Koji Fukaya, arch banking strategist at
Credit Suisse in Tokyo.

YEN AT MULTI-MONTH LOWS

The euro was adult 0.3 percent contra a yen, carrying strike a
fresh three-month high of 106.01 yen.

The yen hovered nearby multi-month lows opposite many other
major currencies as final week’s warn easing by a Bank of
Japan stirred speculators to step adult offered of a yen.

The dollar fetched 79.74 yen, not distant from a 6
1/2-month high of 79.89 yen strike on Monday.

But a U.S. banking now faces clever technical resistance
from a cloud on weekly Ichimoku charts, that it has not managed
to stay above for any postulated duration given mid-2007. The
bottom of a cloud stands during 79.73 while a tip is during 80.94
this week.

Meanwhile, a growth-linked Australian dollar fell 0.4
percent to $1.0708 as European bonds took a strike and
appetite for higher-yielding currencies took a breather.

It extended waste quickly after a mins from the
Reserve Bank of Australia’s Feb 7 assembly were initially
perceived as dovish, yet they showed house members merely
reiterated that a soft acceleration opinion meant that it could
cut rates if necessary.

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FOREX-Euro service proves fleeting, China information eyed

Tue Feb 21, 2012 10:50pm GMT

* Euro off highs, commodity currencies on a defensive

* Markets take increase on new gains following Greek
bailout deal

* HSBC’s peep PMI for China subsequent in focus

By Ian Chua

SYDNEY, Feb 22 (Reuters) – The euro struggled to make
any advance in Asia on Wednesday, carrying retreated from near
two-week highs as confidence over a long-awaited Greek bailout
deal fast gave approach to concerns about mercantile expansion and
implementation risks.

Traders pronounced a Asian event will be destined by HSBC’s
flash production activity news on China. Any disappointment
could import on risk appetite, nonetheless it could also bolster
expectations of some-more impulse from Chinese authorities.

The euro stood during $1.3235, down from Tuesday’s high
of $1.3293. It is seen capped during $1.3306, a 100-day moving
average, and during final week’s arise of $1.3321.

While Greece’s assist package helped palliate fears of an immediate
default, a country’s mercantile opinion remained anything but
rosy, a problem that could nonetheless derail a efforts to accommodate tough
cost-cutting measures to secure a bailout.

“At a finish of a day, deliberation how ideally in place
the pieces will need to tumble for this bailout and pronounced reforms
to make a required changes to assistance reanimate a Greek
economy, we do not trust that a Greek default is off the
table,” pronounced Christopher Vecchio, banking researcher during DailyFX.

The dollar index edged off a 1-1/2 week low of 78.797
to 79.094 as a euro floundered. Against a yen, a greenback
eased to 79.70, recoiling from a six-month high around
79.90 set on Monday.

The dollar has rallied some 5 percent from lows around 76.00
yen given a start of a month, spurred in partial by
yen-weakness after a Bank of Japan’s warn easing last
week.

“The gait of a yen’s pierce in new days looks
unsustainable. But a yen has a ability to break further,
although it’s not going to do so in a true line,” analysts
at Societe Generale wrote in a note.

Among a biggest casualties overnight were commodity
currencies as they suffered what traders pronounced was a classic
buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact pierce following a Greek deal.

The Australian dollar was during $1.0657, some-more than a
full cent reduce from Monday’s arise of $1.0817. It is contrast the
bottom of an uptrend channel shaped from Dec and a break
below a Feb. 14 tray during $1.0629 was seen paving a approach for
further losses.

The evident concentration for a Aussie is salary cost information due at
0030 GMT. Analysts generally design a soft arise of 0.8 percent
on a quarter, an outcome that would support a Reserve Bank
of Australia’s loose opinion for inflation.

(Editing by Wayne Cole)

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FOREX-Euro up as Greek deal provides relief but caution persists

(Updates prices, adds quotes)

* Euro gains despite doubts about Greek bailout implementation

* Resistance just above $1.33 seen capping euro gains

* Euro zone consumer confidence rises in February

* Dollar/yen hovering near 6-1/2-month high

NEW YORK (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) , Feb 21 (Reuters) - The euro rose against the dollar on Tuesday as an overnight bailout deal for Greece prompted investors to pare positions against the currency despite doubts about the deal's implementation.

Euro zone finance ministers sealed a 130-billion-euro ($172 billion) bailout for Greece on Tuesday to avert a chaotic default next month after forcing Athens to commit to unpopular cuts and private bondholders to take bigger losses.

The euro hit a session high of $1.3292 after the successful talks overnight. In midday trade, the euro was 0.1 percent higher at $1.3254, with near-term support at the day's low of $1.3184.

"Being short the euro is a stale position right now," said Douglas Borthwick, managing director, head of trading, at Faros Trading in Stamford, Connecticut. "Many had questioned whether or not Greece would stay in the EUR, but last night's decisions were a resounding vote of yes."

Currency speculators' bets in favor of the U.S. dollar soared in the latest week, according to data from the Commodity (Euronext: COMIN.NX - news) Futures Trading Commission released on Friday. Euro shorts rose as negotiations about Greece's second rescue package dragged on.

To be short a currency is to bet it will decline in value, while being long is a view its value will rise.

Borthwick said there is market talk that finance ministers are discussing an International Monetary Fund firewall and while nothing has been announced, he believes there is one coming, with expected donors including Japan (EUREX: FMJP.EX - news) , China and Mexico to name a few.

"An announcement of some sort will likely come out of the upcoming G20 meeting and that could move the euro sharply higher," he said. "The euro has also yet to catch up with Italian and Spanish bond yields, which have dropped to levels last seen at the start of September of last year."

A break of $1.3320 is seen likely and after that, he said momentum should take over, with the euro possibly reaching $1.40.

"A lot of uncertainty has been removed, with regards to Greece as well as the euro zone's economy," Borthwick added.

Euro zone consumer confidence rose for the second consecutive month in February as Europeans showed timid signs of increased spending after last year's collapse in morale.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts a 0.5 percent contraction in the euro zone economy in 2012.

Investors remain concerned about how Greece would implement the harsh austerity measures demanded of it, while some also saw longer-term risks to the euro following an expected second injection of cheap funds by the European Central Bank next week.

"While the Greece deal removed a temporary risk, the good news was largely priced in ahead of the weekend, " said Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto.

"The deal was pretty much expected and the real surprise would have been if no deal was reached," she said. "There are still many hurdles to jump before Greece becomes a non-issue for markets and broader European problems should keep the euro weighed to the downside over the near term."

Sutton said her first-quarter forecast for the euro is $1.29 with a year-end target of $1.25.

The euro may get a lift if euro zone provisional purchasing managers' surveys on manufacturing and services activity on Wednesday and Thursday's German Ifo sentiment survey show some improvement.

YEN AT MULTIMONTH LOWS

Approval of the Greek deal saw the euro hit a fresh three-month high against the yen. It pulled back from that high of 106.00 yen and in New York trade, was last up 0.1 percent at 105.58 yen.

The yen hovered near multimonth lows against most other major currencies as last week's surprise easing by the Bank of Japan prompted speculators to step up selling of the yen.

"Our end-year forecast of 80 yen has almost been hit already," said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, strategist at UBS (NYSEArca: DJCI - news) . "The risks are now to the upside to this forecast with dollar/yen likely to trade in a 75-85 range in future compared to 75-80 previously."

The dollar was last up 0.1 percent at 79.72 yen, not far from 79.89 yen hit on Monday, a 6-1/2-month high. (Additional reporting by Jessica Mortimer, Editing by Gary Crosse)

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FOREX-Euro consolidates ahead of U.S. jobs data

* Markets awaiting U.S. non-farm payrolls data

* Euro seen consolidating in Asian session

* Next (Xetra: 779551 - news) week's EU Summit key to year-end sentiment

SYDNEY, Dec 2 (Reuters) - The euro and commodity currencies struggled to make much headway in Asia on Friday, continuing to consolidate hefty gains made earlier in the week as investors retreated to the sidelines ahead of the closely watched U.S. non-farm payrolls report.

Due at 1330 GMT, the labour data is expected to show an increase of 122,000 jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 9.0 percent. A positive surprise is likely to underpin risk sentiment, while a weaker-than-expected outcome could prompt investors to take more profits on recent gains.

The euro stood at $1.3460 versus $1.3457 late in New York. It was off a one-week peak of $1.3531 set on Wednesday after major central banks moved to ease a credit squeeze stemming from the euro zone debt crisis.

But a lack of hard action to resolve the euro zone's debt problems had seen the rally come to a halt and left investors looking towards the jobs report as well as next week's European Central Bank (Other OTC: CBSU.PK - news) policy meeting and the EU summit for fresh cues.

If political leaders can agree next week on much tighter budget controls, that could pave the way for more aggressive action from the European Central Bank (ECB), as signalled by the bank's new chief on Thursday.

"Our economists believe that a satisfactory fiscal compact agreed upon at the summit next week should open the door to ECB quantitative easing, which we expect could come as soon as Q1 2012," wrote analysts at BNP Paribas (Other OTC: BNPQF.PK - news) .

But analysts at Societe Generale (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) warned a lack of progress on the root causes of the euro zone crisis will translate into wider bond yield spreads and a weaker euro, in January.

With the euro on the front foot for now, the dollar index slipped 0.1 percent to 78.305. Against the yen, the dollar was at 77.75, still hemmed in a 77-78 range with investors wary of more massive intervention by Japan (EUREX: FMJP.EX - news) .

Commodity (Euronext: COMIN.NX - news) currencies, while off the week's peak, stayed well supported. The Australian dollar stood at $1.0227, not far off a three-week high of $1.0335 set earlier in the week.

It is on track to end the week up more than 4 percent. Key resistance is seen around $1.0337, a level representing the 61.8 percent retracement of the November (Stuttgart: A0Z24E - news) decline.

There is no major data in Asia, while euro zone producer inflation numbers are due later in the day. (Editing by Ed Davies)

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FOREX-Euro rises for 5th day on US jobs, ECB-IMF loan talk

* U.S. payrolls number broadly in line with expectations

* U.S. unemployment rate falls to 8.6 percent

* Focus on EU summit next week

(Recasts, adds U.S. data, comment, updates prices, changes byline, dateline, previous LONDON)

NEW YORK (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) , Dec 2 ( Reuters) - The euro rose for a fifth straight session against the dollar on Friday, bolstered by speculation that the European Central Bank may lend to weak euro zone countries through the International Monetary Fund.

The drop in U.S. unemployment rate to 8.6 percent last month also stoked the market's appetite for risk, even though the headline figure of 120,000 new jobs created was well short of the whisper number of 200,000 touted just before the release of the report. For more, click on.

The payrolls data also lifted the euro, which was on track for its best weekly gain since late October, and some of the risk-friendly currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Gains in the euro, however, kicked off after talk that the ECB would make loans available to the IMF (Berlin: MXG1.BE - news) for debt-ridden euro zone countries. That sparked hopes of some kind of solution to the European sovereign debt crisis.

"We've seen a lot of improvement lately -- the U.S. data is better, the sentiment surrounding Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) has improved in the last few days on the hope a grand plan, so all that is out there in the market,: said Bob Sinche, global head of currency strategy at Royal Bank of Scotland (LSE: RBS.L - news) in Stamford, Connecticut.

"This is good enough to consolidate the gains we've had. I think the euro around $1.35 is not a bad level at which to end the week."

In early New York trading, the euro was last up 0.3 percent at $1.35024. It hit a high $1.35505 on electronic trading platform EBS immediately after the U.S. non-farm payrolls data, currency's highest since Nov. 22.

Investors though were wary of buying the single currency aggressively, however, given that it has already rallied more than 1 percent this week and it remains vulnerable to the region's debt problems.

"I think the issue is that there is still so much risk associated with Europe. No one wants to be long the euro going into the weekend," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist, at BNY Mellon in New York.

In other currencies, the dollar was down 0.2 percent against a currency basket at 78.122. Against the yen, the dollar edged up 0.2 percent to 77.870 yen.

With the U.S. data out of the way, markets are now awaiting a European Union summit on Dec. 9 for signs of progress on the euro zone debt crisis.

French and German leaders are meeting next Monday to outline joint proposals to be discussed at next week's EU meeting, which is viewed as yet another make-or-break meeting for the 12-year-old currency bloc. (Additional reporting by Steven C. Johnson and Wanfeng Zhou; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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FOREX-Euro falls 1st time in 5 days ahead of key events=2

Currency bid prices at 2:18 p.m. EST (1918 GMT). All data taken from Reuters calculated from the levels in the previous New York (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) session.

Last US Close Pct YTD Pct 2010

Dec. 1 Change Change Close ------------------------------------------------------------- Euro/dlr 1.3398 1.3463 -0.48 +0.16 1.3377 Dlr/yen 77.940 77.740 +0.26 -3.96 81.150 Euro/yen 104.43 104.60 -0.16 -3.87 108.63 Dlr/swiss 0.9206 0.9154 +0.57 -1.38 0.9335 Stg/dlr 1.5590 1.5693 -0.66 -0.06 1.5599 Dlr/cad 1.0181 1.0139 +0.41 +2.15 0.9967 Aus/dlr 1.0221 1.0227 -0.06 +0.18 1.0203 Euro/swiss 1.2334 1.2323 +0.09 -1.23 1.2488 Euro/stg 0.8593 0.8579 +0.16 +0.24 0.8572 Nzd/dlr 0.7780 0.7782 -0.03 -0.14 0.7791 Dlr/Norw 5.7890 5.8036 -0.25 -0.56 5.8218 Euro/Norw 7.7548 7.8131 -0.75 -0.45 7.7895 Dlr/Swed 6.7557 6.7704 -0.22 +0.68 6.7098 Euro/Swed 9.0492 9.1154 -0.73 +0.76 8.9809 All spots Tokyo spots Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) spots Volatilities Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ World central bank news Economic Forecasts... Official rates... Forex Diary....... Top events........ Diaries........... Diaries Index........ Press Digests..... Polls on G7 economies.. European markets......

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FOREX-Euro gains on talk of ECB/IMF aid, before U.S. data

* Euro rises vs dollar, buoyed before U.S. jobs data

* Currencies in tight range, traders wary of big bets before data

* EU summit next week awaited for signs of progress on debt crisis

LONDON, Dec 2 (Reuters) - The euro rose against the dollar on Friday on expectations that U.S. jobs data would show the economy slowly recovering and on talk of the possibility the European Central Bank may lend to weak euro zone countries via the IMF (Berlin: MXG1.BE - news) .

The talk sparked hopes of some kind of solution to the euro debt crisis, pushing the euro up 0.5 percent to $1.3538, its strongest in more than a week, with traders saying it extended gains after stop loss orders were triggered about $1.3530.

A positive surprise in U.S. jobs numbers at 1330 GMT would underpin a recent string of solid U.S. data and would be likely to boost risk sentiment and lift the euro further versus the safe-haven dollar. A weaker-than-expected outcome may push investors to take more profits on recent euro gains, however.

The non-farm payrolls report is forecast to show a rise of 122,000 jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 9.0 percent.

Investors were wary of buying the single currency aggressively, however, given that it has already rallied more than 1 percent this week even as it remains vulnerable to the region's debt problems.

Johan Javeus, chief strategist at SEB (Frankfurt: 862948 - news) in Stockholm, said he expected the data would confirm the U.S. economy is faring better than it was in the first half of the year, although it would not show a very strong recovery trajectory.

"It should confirm what we've seen in other data, that things are not as bad as people thought a few months ago. In that sense I don't expect a really big reaction from this number should it come in line with expectations or slightly better," he said.

"In the end, focus is on what could happen with the political process in Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) and that will take precedent."

But with investors sidelined before the jobs report, market participants showed little reaction to a speech by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who told parliament the euro zone debt crisis could not be solved in one fell swoop and urged tighter fiscal integration.

French and German leaders are meeting next Monday to outline joint proposals to put to a Dec. 9 EU summit, seen as yet another make-or-break meeting for the 12-year-old currency bloc.

Nervousness ahead of this summit was expected to limit any euro gains from strong U.S. jobs data.

"It will just be one more piece of good data coming on the back of a few positive things this week and there may be some reaction but I wouldn't expect it to be massive," said Nomura strategist Lefteris Farmakis.

Other currencies perceived to be higher risk, including the Australian and New Zealand dollars, also rose against a softer dollar, which slipped 0.4 percent versus a currency basket to 78.026.

A 1.5 percent rise in European share prices suggested an ongoing improvement in risk appetite this week, which has prompted investors to sell the safe-haven U.S. currency.

Against the yen, the dollar edged up 0.2 percent to 77.86 yen.

EU SUMMIT AWAITED

The euro has held gains after rallying earlier in the week, when major central banks around the world took coordinated measures to increase dollar liquidity to prevent a liquidity crunch in markets.

Analysts said this had provided a stop-gap measure to stabilise markets for now, while adding that investors had big expectations for the EU summit next week.

Morgan Stanley (EUREX: DWDF.EX - news) said it had used the euro's gains this week to establish a renewed bearish position on the single currency as it stuck to its view of more weakness in the currency in the mid-term.

"We continue to look for the market to be disappointed by the European Summit," its analysts said in a note, adding that they expected the euro to also underperform commodity currencies, particularly the Canadian and Australian dollars.

The European Central Bank hinted on Thursday it was ready to move more aggressively to tackle the crisis if politicians agree on much tighter budget controls in the euro zone, though it stopped short of detailing what exact measures it would take.

Still, there is no agreement among EU policymakers regarding how such controls could be implemented and many other problems, including securing resources to leverage the euro zone's bailout fund, linger unresolved. Analysts believe this will keep the euro on the back foot. (Additional reporting by Naomi Tajitsu; editing by Ron Askew)

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FOREX-Euro falls 1st time in 5 days ahead of key events

* U.S. unemployment rate falls to 8.6 percent

* ECB's Stark says crisis cure needed to avoid disaster

* Euro reverses gains ahead of key event risks next week

Updates prices, adds quotes, links and graphics, changes byline)

NEW YORK (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) , Dec 2 (Reuters) - The euro fell against the dollar for the first time in five sessions on Friday, with investors wary of placing aggressive bets in favor of the currency ahead of a European Central Bank meeting and a European Union summit next week.

The euro zone's common currency posted sharp gains after data showed the U.S. unemployment rate fell to a 2-1/2 year low in November (Stuttgart: A0Z24E - news) . Reports the ECB may lend to weak euro zone countries through the International Monetary Fund in hopes of easing the the debt crisis also supported it earlier in the global session.

But the euro reversed course on various market rumors, including one of a potential downgrade of Spain. Investors were also hesitant to buy the single currency in the aftermath of a strong rally this week.

"It's a very rumor-driven market so there's a lot of caution," said David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC (MCX: RBCI.ME - news) Capital Markets in Toronto. "We also have an ECB meeting next week, which may probably cut rates," he added, noting a potential negative for the euro.

The ECB hinted Thursday it was ready to move more aggressively to tackle the crisis if regional politicians agree on much tighter budget controls, though it stopped short of detailing what exact measures it would take.

Leaders must urgently find a solution to the euro zone debt crisis or there will be widespread macroeconomic and financial disaster, Juergen Stark, one of the European Central Bank's top policymakers, warned on Friday.

The euro fell as low as $1.33630, blowing through stops at $1.34150. It was last at $1.3398 on trading platform EBS, down 0.5 percent on the day. It rose to a 10-day high of $1.35505 immediately after the U.S. non-farm payrolls report.

The U.S. unemployment rate fell to a 2-1/2 year low in November, though the pace of hiring remained too slow to suggest a significant quickening of the recovery.

The report could temper the appetite among some Federal (SES: E1:F20.SI - news) Reserve officials to ease monetary policy further.

"I guess with the superficial improvements in the U.S. jobs report, that suggests a third round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve is further away, which is a positive for the dollar," said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

INSTANT VIEW- US jobless rate drops

Graphic - U.S. payrolls: http://link.reuters.com/suf45s

Graphic - U.S. jobless rate, payroll change. http://r.reuters.com/was53s

Graphic - U.S. nonfarm payrolls by type. http://r.reuters.com/kus53s

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

Despite the euro's drop, it was on pace to end the week higher by about 0.4 percent, its best weekly performance since late October.

Morgan Stanley (EUREX: DWDF.EX - news) said it was using the euro's gains this week to establish a renewed bearish position on the single currency, sticking to its view of more weakness in the currency in the midterm.

"We continue to look for the market to be disappointed by the European Summit," Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note, adding that they expected the euro to underperform commodity currencies, particularly the Canadian and Australian dollars.

The dollar rose 0.4 percent against a currency basket , to 78.646. Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.3 percent to 77.94 yen.

With the U.S. jobs data out of the way, markets were awaiting a European Union summit set for Dec. 9 for signs of progress on the debt crisis.

French and German leaders are to meet on Dec. 5 to outline joint proposals to be discussed at the EU meeting, which is viewed as yet another make-or-break meeting for the 2-year-old currency bloc.

(Additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Dan Grebler)

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FOREX-Euro consolidates with focus on US jobs, EU action

* Markets awaiting U.S. non-farm payrolls data

* Euro seen consolidating in Asian session

* Next (Xetra: 779551 - news) week's ECB, EU meets key to year-end sentiment

* Kiwi slightly higher, fails to break above this week's high

TOKYO, Dec 2 (Reuters) - The euro struggled to make much headway on Friday, consolidating this week's gains as traders stuck to the sidelines ahead of a crucial U.S. jobs report and event-packed week that could prove decisive for the currency bloc.

The non-farm payrolls report is expected to show an increase of 122,000 jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 9.0 percent. A positive surprise would underpin a recent string of solid U.S. data and bolster risk sentiment, while a weaker-than-expected outcome could prompt investors to take more profits on recent gains.

The euro changed hands at $1.3468 against $1.3457 late in New York (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) . It was off a one-week peak of $1.3534 set on Wednesday after major central banks moved to ease a credit squeeze stemming from the crisis.

"The move by the central banks simply eased liquidity worries for now. The big-bazooka solutions are coming next week and the euro's strength hinges on their feasibility," said Sumino Kamei, senior currency analyst at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in Tokyo.

French and German leaders are meeting next Monday to outline joint proposals to put to a Dec. 9 EU summit, seen as -- yet another -- make-or-break meeting for the 12-year-old currency bloc.

"EU leaders have disappointed in the past, so nobody is naive enough to simply pile into the euro on mere statements, especially since Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) faces serious economic headwinds anyway," Kamei said.

She (SNP: ^SHEY - news) added, however, that the currency may move another leg higher if the actions are strongly supported by the European Central Bank (Other OTC: CBSU.PK - news) and even if the move up is not sustained, it may still prove an important chance to sell into a rally.

The central bank hinted on Thursday it was ready to move more aggressively to tackle the crisis if politicians agree on much tighter budget controls in the euro zone, though it stopped short of detailing what exact measures it would take.

Economists also expect the ECB to help banks and an economy on the verge of recession by cutting interest rates next week and announcing longer-term cheap liquidity tenders with easier collateral rules. Markets are pricing in a 25 basis point cut to 1.0 percent at ECB's Dec. 8. policy meeting.

The common currency briefly nudged higher on buying by a U.S. bank, which traders said was neither fundamentals- nor news-based and occurred in a thin Friday trade. They also reported some sell orders from short-term accounts, underscoring a still fragile sentiment about the currency.

Decent stop-loss euro bids were spotted in the $1.3520-25 area, while offers were lurking near $1.3500. One possible resistance for the currency lied near $1.3525, the bottom of the weekly Ichimoku cloud.

"Our economists believe that a satisfactory fiscal compact agreed upon at the summit next week should open the door to ECB quantitative easing, which we expect could come as soon as Q1 2012," wrote analysts at BNP Paribas (Other OTC: BNPQF.PK - news) .

But analysts at Societe Generale (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) warned a lack of progress on the root causes of the euro zone crisis will translate into wider bond yield spreads and a weaker euro, in January.

With the euro on the front foot for now, the dollar index slipped 0.1 percent to 78.307. Against the yen, the dollar was mildly bid at 77.83, still hemmed in a 77-78 range with investors wary of more massive intervention by Japan (EUREX: FMJP.EX - news) .

The New Zealand dollar tested this week's high set on Wednesday at $0.7824 for the third time in three straight sessions, but came slightly short of it, last changing hands at 0.7806. It has risen nearly 4 percent this week.

Support for the kiwi is seen around $0.7730, while the 55-day moving average at $0.7900 is likely to cap the topside.

The Australian dollar stood at $1.0222, not far off a three-week high of $1.0335 set earlier in the week.

Key (NYSE: KEY - news) resistance is seen around $1.0337, a level representing the 61.8 percent retracement of the November (Stuttgart: A0Z24E - news) decline. (Editing by Chris Gallagher)

View the original article here

FOREX-Euro rises for 4th day vs dollar, but debt woes linger

17:22, Thursday 1 December 2011

* Euro lifted by good demand at Spain's auction

* Short-covering may lift euro, but debt worries remain

* ECB's Draghi says downside risks have increased

* Strong U.S. ISM number adds to U.S. recovery hopes (Updates prices, adds quote, U.S. data)

NEW YORK (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) , Dec 1 (Reuters) - The euro rose for a fourth straight session against the dollar on Thursday, bolstered by generally successful Spanish and French debt auctions, although traders were inclined to view its gains as good selling opportunities.

Spain sold 3.75 billion euros of three bonds at the top of the targeted range, although its borrowing cost was the highest in 14 years and at levels seen as unsustainable for public finances. France also found demand for its sale of 4.35 billion euros of debt in several maturities. [ID:nL5E7N11J2]

The euro's gains have dissipated a bit in midday trading as stocks turned mostly negative, with traders saying investors are consolidating their positions ahead of Friday's all-important U.S. non-farm payrolls report.

"We have had some big moves in the euro the last couple of days and a lot of event risks so the market is taking a little bit of a breather and consolidating their gains before tomorrow's big U.S. employment number," said Steven Butler, director of foreign-exchange trading at Scotia Capital in Toronto.

Investors are looking at 122,000 new jobs added to the U.S. economy last month and a steady unemployment rate of 9.0 percent. A higher-than-expected number could whet risk appetite once again and lift risk-friendly currencies such as the euro.

The euro was last up 0.3 percent at $1.34811.

Traders said news that the International Monetary Fund will likely cut its global growth forecasts in late January took the steam out of the rally in risky assets. For the IMF (Berlin: MXG1.BE - news) story, click on [ID:nW1E7MS00Q].

On Wednesday, the euro had hit a one-week high of $1.35337 on trading platform EBS after central banks of the United States and the euro zone, as well as Canada, Britain, Japan (EUREX: FMJP.EX - news) and Switzerland cut the cost of dollar loans to the banking system. [ID:nL5E7MU118]

The euro also rose to a two-week high against the yen

A break above $1.3533 though could see the euro rise toward its Nov. 18 high of $1.3615, analysts said. If it fails to retest Wednesday's high, however, the rally may peter out.

An increase in the Institute for Supply Management's U.S. manufacturing index for November (Stuttgart: A0Z24E - news) to 52.7 pushed the euro up against the dollar above $1.35 earlier as it increased the market's appetite for risk and reinforced the view that the world's largest economy is on a stable path to recovery. For the data, click on [ID:nN1E7B008U].

In midday trading, the dollar index was down 0.1 percent at 78.277, though off the 77.923 low hit on Wednesday.

Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities in Toronto, said hints from French President Nicolas Sarkozy about considerable progress on fiscal integration within the euro zone could see a push toward $1.3554 in the euro. He added, though, that the market's strategy remained selling the euro on any significant rally.

Many analysts are awaiting Sarkozy's speech on the euro- zone crisis at around 12:30 p.m. (1730 GMT) for an update as to what euro-zone policy-makers have planned to prevent the crisis from spreading to other healthier economies in the region.

On Thursday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi highlighted the euro zone's fragile outlook, saying downside risks to the economy have increased and that the bank's temporary measures are only limited. For more click on [ID:nF9E7LQ00L], [ID:nL5E7MU5LM].

That reinforced a market view that the ECB could cut interest rates and extend its liquidity measures when it meets to decide on monetary policy next week -- and this could well negate the euro's rally.

More important for markets will be whether European leaders are able to agree on a comprehensive solution to tackle the debt crisis at a European Union summit on Dec. 9. (Editing by Jan Paschal)

View the original article here

FOREX-Euro gains 4th day vs dollar, but trend seen tenuous

19:49, Thursday 1 December 2011

* Euro lifted by good demand at Spain's auction

* France's Sarkozy outlines euro crisis stance

* ECB's Draghi says downside risks have increased

* Strong U.S. ISM number adds to U.S. recovery hopes (Updates prices, adds quotes, links and graphics, changes byline)

NEW YORK (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) , Dec 1 (Reuters) - The euro gained against the dollar for a fourth straight session on Thursday, a trend seen as tenuous given unresolved fiscal and economic issues in the region and despite initiatives from global central banks.

While the single-currency was buoyed by generally successful Spanish and French debt auctions, traders were inclined to view gains as good selling opportunities.

While Spain sold 3.75 billion euros of three bonds at the top of the targeted range, they were at levels seen as unsustainable for public finances. France also found demand for its sale of 4.35 billion euros of debt in several maturities. [ID:nL5E7N11J2]

The euro reached a high of $1.3521 , according to Reuters data but gains dissipated in early afternoon New York trading as stocks turned mostly negative after Wednesday's record rally.

Investors were said to be consolidating their positions ahead of Friday's all-important U.S. non-farm payrolls report for November (Stuttgart: A0Z24E - news) .

"We have had some big moves in the euro the last couple of days and a lot of event risks, so the market is taking a little bit of a breather and consolidating their gains before tomorrow's big U.S. employment number," said Steven Butler, director of foreign-exchange trading at Scotia Capital in Toronto.

Investors are looking at 122,000 new jobs added to the U.S. economy last month and a steady unemployment rate of 9.0 percent. A higher-than-expected number could whet risk appetite once again and lift risk-friendly currencies such as the euro.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the European Central Bank is independent and will remain so. [ID:nL5E7N13N6] [ID:nP6E7LO02B]

The euro was last up 0.3 percent at $1.3472. A break above $1.3533 could see the euro rise toward its Nov. 18 high of $1.3615, analysts said. If it fails to retest Wednesday's high, however, the rally may peter out.

On Wednesday, the euro had hit a one-week high of $1.35337 on trading platform EBS after central banks of the United States and the euro zone, as well as Canada, Britain, Japan (EUREX: FMJP.EX - news) and Switzerland cut the cost of dollar loans to the banking system. [ID:nL5E7MU118]

Although investors cheered Wednesday's joint central bank action, they are worried that the debt crisis remains unresolved, with little time for politicians to find a solution.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled it stood ready to act more aggressively to fight Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) 's debt crisis if political leaders agree next week on much tighter budget controls in the 17-nation euro zone. He also painted a dark picture of the state of the banking system. [ID:nL5E7N11XQ]

Draghi, however, did not spell out what action the ECB might take.

The ECB is under huge political and market pressure to massively step up purchases of euro zone government bonds or lend money to the IMF (Berlin: MXG1.BE - news) to support ailing Italy and Spain.

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Other stories on euro zone crisis [ID:nL5E7LR1WL]

Analysis on drive to boost IMF resources [ID:nN1E7AT27A]

BREAKINGVIEWS-Euro-IMF scheme questions [ID:nL4E7N11SW] Euro zone in graphics http://r.reuters.com/hyb65p

Market disconnect graphic http://r.reuters.com/van64s

Interactive timeline http://link.reuters.com/rev89r ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

An increase in the Institute for Supply Management's U.S. manufacturing index fueled the market's appetite for risk and reinforced the view that the world's largest economy is on a stable path to recovery. [ID:nN1E7B008U]

The dollar index was last down 0.1 percent at 78.292, though off the 77.923 low hit on Wednesday. Against the yen, the dollar was up 0.2 percent at 77.64 . (Additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

View the original article here

FOREX-Euro edges adult on short-covering though vulnerable

Fri Nov 18, 2011 7:03am GMT

* Euro in downtrend though dump approaching to be light -trader

* Mounting risk hatred supports dollar

* Aussie dips behind next relation vs USD

* Worries grow as European bank appropriation condition tightens

By Masayuki Kitano

SINGAPORE, Nov 18 (Reuters) – The euro edged aloft on
Friday as traders lonesome brief positions after a new drop
to a five-week low, though a singular banking was approaching to
remain in a downtrend amid fears a euro section debt predicament is
spiralling out of control.

Selling vigour on a euro has strong this week
on signs that contamination was swelling to core euro zone
countries such as France, and a banking is on lane for its
biggest one-week dump given early September.

The spotlight fell on Spain on Thursday, that had to pay
the top rate to sell a 10-year debt given 1997, only shy
of a 7 percent symbol seen as unsustainable.

The euro, however, showed some resilience in a wake
of a Spanish bond auction, removing a boost from short-covering
and holding above a five-week tray of $1.3421 strike on Thursday
on trade height EBS.

“The marketplace is really fervent to sell a euro and also
eager to take some profits,” pronounced Jesper Bargmann, Asia conduct of
G11 mark FX for RBS in Singapore. “So we are saying seductiveness on
the dips to buy.”

Such short-covering seductiveness is approaching to insist and
limit a speed of a euro’s declines, Bargmann said.

“There’s copiousness of two-way seductiveness in a euro now,” he
added. “There’s a lot of brief positions out there and people
are fervent to book some profit. So it’s not an easy trade.”

The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.3479, though is
still down roughly 2.4 percent for a week, on lane for its
biggest weekly commission decrease given early September.

The euro is approaching to exam a early Oct low of $1.3145
eventually, though a skirmish will substantially be gradual, said
Bargmann during RBS.

“I consider we’ll mangle $1.30 though we consider it’s going to be in a
fairly nurse fashion,” he said, adding that there were likely
to be some spikes and bouts of short-covering in between.

Support for a euro lies during around $1.3405, a 76.4
percent retracement of a Oct rally. The bottom of the
weekly Ichimoku cloud also offers support nearby that level,
coming in during $1.3408.

“The (euro’s) instruction is substantially toward the
downside though looking during how a marketplace has been relocating and
positioning, we have to be heedful of short-covering,” pronounced a
trader for a Japanese brokerage residence in Tokyo.

DOLLAR FUNDINS STRAINS

The deepening of a euro zone’s debt predicament has caused
heightened highlight in dollar appropriation markets this week.

The reward for swapping euros into dollars rose on
Thursday, with a three-month cross-currency basement barter around
6 basement points wider during -136 basement points, a many given the
2008 financial crisis.

“The delayed suit sight pile-up continues, with USD appropriation now
clearly a bigger emanate as contamination spreads some-more deeply into
Spain,” pronounced Sebastien Galy, strategist during Societe Generale.

The Australian dollar, that tends to come underneath vigour in
times of marketplace stress, dipped to a five-week low of
$0.9966 and was final down 0.3 percent during $0.9977.

“While risks to a downside seem some-more apparent, it’s
worth observant that a banking is now oversold on several
momentum-based indicators,” pronounced David Scutt, a merchant during Arab
Bank Australia in Sydney.

“Keeping this in mind, should any good news surrounding
Europe strike a screens, it’s approaching to see a Aussie spring
higher on a behind of brief covering.”

The dollar dipped 0.2 percent opposite a yen to 76.86
yen. Wariness about a probability that Japan may
intervene serve in a arise of a large yen-selling
intervention on Oct. 31, has lent support to a dollar
recently.

Increased signs of dollar-funding strains are another
factor ancillary a dollar, pronounced a merchant for a Japanese bank,
adding that dollar offers from Japanese exporters are approaching to
put downward vigour on a dollar towards a month-end.

View the original article here

FOREX-Euro firms though opinion grave on swelling debt crisis

Sorry, I could not read the content fromt this page.

View the original article here

FOREX-Euro rises on ECB lending hope, but down for 3rd week

{"s" : "039200.KQ,FMJP.EX,HX6.F,MXG1.BE,^REURUSD","k" : "a00,a50,b00,b60,c10,g00,h00,l10,p20,t10,v00","o" : "","j" : ""} 19:07, Friday 18 November 2011

* Short covering, ECB boost euro ahead of weekend

* Debt crisis still points to weaker single currency

* Interbank funding strains boost dollar demand (Updates prices, adds quotes and graphics)

NEW YORK (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) , Nov 18 (Reuters) - The euro rose against the dollar on Friday on the possibility the European Central Bank will lend to the International Monetary Fund to bail out bigger euro zone economies and as borrowing costs for Italy and Spain eased.

Sentiment on the euro, however, remained bearish, with the common currency headed for a third straight week of losses as fears persisted that the debt crisis could engulf major euro zone states such as France and trigger a break-up of the 17-nation bloc.

Yields on Italian and Spanish bonds eased after the ECB stepped in to stabilize the market, but fears remain that both countries' borrowing costs are at unsustainable levels. [ID:nL5E7MI24O]

Euro zone officials said there have been discussions that the ECB could lend to the IMF (Berlin: MXG1.BE - news) to provide the fund with enough money to bail out even the biggest euro zone countries. [ID:nL5E7MH2MW] Pressure has also mounted on the ECB to step up its bond purchases.

Either approach would be satisfactory, said Andrew Busch, senior currency strategist at BMO Capital Markets in Chicago, "The broader point is that the ECB is finding a way to stabilize the European debt crisis," he said.

"This third-party lending arrangement not only works around ECB laws, but also provides an avenue for the ECB to create enough funding to stabilize the crisis while maintaining its appearance of independence," he added.

The euro last traded up 0.5 percent at $1.3524 on Reuters data, pulling away from a five-week low of $1.3420 struck on Thursday. On the week, the euro was down 2 percent versus the dollar.

The euro's improvement reflects hope for a solution, rather than strong confidence that such a solution will be achieved, said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo.

"For the next week and in the context of choppy trading, our bias is for U.S. dollar strength and global currency weakness."

Many analysts believe the only way to stem the contagion in Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) is for the ECB to buy up large quantities of bonds, effectively the sort of "quantitative easing" undertaken by the U.S. and British central banks.

Bond market participants polled by Reuters saw a 50/50 chance that the ECB will expand bond purchases to engage in outright quantitative easing. [ID:nL9E7J203E]

Support for the euro lies near $1.3405, the 76.4 percent retracement of last month's rally from around $1.3144 on Oct (KOSDAQ: 039200.KQ - news) . 4 to a high of $1.4247 on Oct. 27.

Spanish elections set for Sunday could help support a rise in the euro against the dollar in the very near-term, because the opposition party, which is seen as favoring austerity measures, is expected to win. But most see a downward trend in the euro.

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Analysis of policy options [ID:nL5E7MF2XJ]

Other stories on euro zone debt crisis [ID:nL5E7LR1WL]

Countdown for euro zone rescue [ID:nL5E7MF2XJ]

Analysis on difficulty of breakup [ID:nL5E7MF1PJ]

Euro zone crisis in graphics http://r.reuters.com/hyb65p

Interactive timeline http://link.reuters.com/rev89r

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

With investors shunning euro zone assets, funding strains were increasing for euro zone financial institutions. The premium for swapping euros into dollars rose, with the three-month cross-currency basis swap hitting its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. [ID:nN1E7AG18W]

Analysts said high funding costs were pushing banks into shorter duration funding and could spread into spot currency markets, weighing on the euro. [ID:nL5E7MG4HG]

Against the yen, the dollar slid as low as 76.575 on trading platform EBS , the weakest level since Japan (EUREX: FMJP.EX - news) 's massive intervention on Oct. 31. It was last down 0.1 percent at 76.92. (Additional reporting by Wanfeng Zhou in New York and Nia Williams in London; Editing by Leslie Adler)

View the original article here

FOREX-Euro rises on ECB lending talk, sentiment shaky

{"s" : "039200.KQ,CRZBF.PK,FMJP.EX,HX6.F","k" : "a00,a50,b00,b60,c10,g00,h00,l10,p20,t10,v00","o" : "","j" : ""} 15:01, Friday 18 November 2011

* Short covering, boosts euro ahead of weekend

* Debt crisis still points to weaker single currency

* Interbank funding strains boost dollar demand (Updates prices, adds details, comments, changes byline, dateline, previous LONDON)

NEW YORK (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) , Nov 18 (Reuters) - The euro rose against the dollar on Friday on speculation the European Central Bank may start lending to the International Monetary Fund to bail out troubled euro zone economies and as Italian and Spanish bond yields retreated.

Sentiment toward the euro remained bearish, however, and the common currency was headed for a third straight week of losses, as fears persisted that the debt crisis could engulf major euro zone states such as France and trigger a break-up of the bloc.

The European Central Bank again intervened in the secondary market to help ease tensions on debt issued by some of the troubled countries. Pressure was growing on the ECB to step up its bond-buying activity after Italian and Spanish yields hovered near unsustainable levels.

"Some relief in European bond markets and ongoing speculation about how the ECB might help have provided some temporary relief to markets," said Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto.

"We see today's rally as temporary and continue to prefer to play the euro from the short side," she added.

The euro rose more than 1 percent to a session peak of $1.3614 on Reuters data, pulling away from a five-week low of $1.3420 struck on Thursday. It last traded at $1.3562, still up 0.8 percent on the day.

Some investors closed their bets against the euro ahead of the weekend, which also boosted the euro, and gains accelerated after automatic buy orders were triggered around $1.3550.

Support lies near $1.3405, the 76.4 percent retracement of last month's rally from around $1.3144 on Oct (KOSDAQ: 039200.KQ - news) . 4 to a high of $1.4247 on Oct. 27.

Speculation of the ECB taking a more forceful role in stemming the debt crisis has gained traction in recent days. On Thursday, European officials said there have been discussions about the central bank possibly lending to the global lender, which would give it enough money to bail out bigger euro zone countries. [ID:nL5E7MH2MW]

Bond market participants polled by Reuters saw a 50/50 chance that the ECB will expand bond purchases to engage in outright quantitative easing. [ID:nL9E7J203E]

FUNDING STRAINS

While the euro could push higher in the near term as a short squeeze continues, the prevailing trend remains for a lower euro.

"Courageous market participants can sell the euro around $1.3550-60, we would start shortening euro/dollar at $1.3650," Commerzbank (Other OTC: CRZBF.PK - news) bank strategists wrote to clients.

There are signs that investors have stopped shifting money into the relatively safer German bunds and are instead abandoning the euro zone altogether, with German bond yields no longer falling as peripheral yields rise.

With investors shunning euro zone assets, funding strains were increasing for euro zone financial institutions. The premium for swapping euros into dollars rose, with the three-month cross-currency basis swap hitting 138.5 basis points on Friday, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis. [ID:nN1E7AG18W]

"So far this has not had a dramatic effect on the euro, but it is likely to be behind some of the recent weakening," said FxPro's chief economist Simon Smith.

Analysts said high funding costs were pushing banks into shorter duration funding and could spread into spot currency markets, weighing on the euro. [ID:nL5E7MG4HG]

The safe-haven Japanese yen and Swiss franc gained. The dollar slid as low as 76.575 , the weakest since Japan (EUREX: FMJP.EX - news) 's massive intervention on Oct. 31, and was last down 0.3 percent at 76.78. The dollar also lost 0.9 percent to 0.9129 Swiss franc . (Additional reporting by Nia Williams in London; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

View the original article here

FOREX-Euro up but ECB uncertainty, US deficit debate weigh

{"s" : "039200.KQ,98S.SG,C,FMJP.EX,HX6.F,MXG1.BE,^REURUSD","k" : "a00,a50,b00,b60,c10,g00,h00,l10,p20,t10,v00","o" : "","j" : ""} 21:30, Friday 18 November 2011

* Short-covering, ECB boost euro ahead of weekend

* Debt crisis still points to weaker single currency

* U.S. budget deficit debate could sway sentiment

* Euro short bets rise in latest week

NEW YORK (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) , Nov 18 (Reuters) - Investors will remain wary of placing bets in favor of the euro, with issues on both sides of the Atlantic (Stuttgart: A0J3C9 - news) likely to contain risk appetite.

While the euro rose against the dollar on Friday on the possibility the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund will bail out bigger euro zone economies and borrowing costs for Italy and Spain eased, sentiment remained bearish.

The common currency fell for three straight weeks as fears persisted that the debt crisis could engulf major euro zone states such as France and trigger a break-up of the 17-nation bloc.

"While we had some consolidation today, the overall dynamics for the euro remain weak and we expect it to end the year at around $1.29," said Mark McCormick, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

"There is not much clarity on what is needed to support the euro zone as a whole," he said. "The ECB remains reluctant to increase purchases of periphery bonds and the EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) has not yet been fully implemented."

Yields on Italian and Spanish bonds eased after the ECB stepped in to stabilize the market, but fears remain that both countries' borrowing costs are at unsustainable levels. For more, see: [ID:nL5E7MI24O]

Euro zone officials said there have been discussions that the ECB could lend to the IMF (Berlin: MXG1.BE - news) to provide the fund with enough money to bail out even the biggest euro zone countries. [ID:nL5E7MH2MW] Pressure has also mounted on the ECB to step up its bond purchases.

Economists say only the ECB would have enough fire power to quell a confidence crisis spreading throughout the euro zone. But EU law forbids the bank to finance government borrowing directly, thus the possible arrangement with the IMF.

"Right now there is no buyer of last resort for the bonds and while austerity measures can boost short-term confidence, they are not a panacea," McCormick said. "The headwinds in Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) are potent and acute."

Many analysts believe the only way to stem the contagion in Europe is for the ECB to buy up large quantities of bonds, effectively the sort of "quantitative easing" undertaken by the U.S. and British central banks.

Bond market participants polled by Reuters saw a 50/50 chance that the ECB will expand bond purchases to engage in outright quantitative easing. [ID:nL9E7J203E]

Many economists say the euro zone is on the brink of another recession. This could prompt the ECB to cut interest rates again, a negative for the euro, as it would make higher-yielding currencies more appealing.

The euro last traded up 0.4 percent at $1.3514 on Reuters data, pulling away from a five-week low of $1.3420 struck on Thursday. On the week, the euro was down about 2 percent versus the dollar.

The dollar could gain on risk aversion next week given that a high-profile effort to trim stubborn U.S. budget deficits appeared near collapse on Friday as Democrats and Republicans were unable to agree on tax increases and benefit cuts. [ID:nN1E7AH0HA]

The 12-member "Super Committee" in Congress has until midnight on Wednesday to strike a deal that would save at least $1.2 trillion over 10 years.

Spanish elections set for Sunday could help support a rise in the euro against the dollar in the very near-term, because the opposition party, which is seen as favoring austerity measures, is expected to win. But most see a downward trend in the euro. <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Analysis of policy options [ID:nL5E7MF2XJ]

Other stories on euro zone debt crisis [ID:nL5E7LR1WL]

Countdown for euro zone rescue [ID:nL5E7MF2XJ]

Analysis on difficulty of breakup [ID:nL5E7MF1PJ]

Euro zone crisis in graphics http://r.reuters.com/hyb65p

Interactive timeline http://link.reuters.com/rev89r

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Currency speculators raised their bets in favor of the U.S. dollar in the latest week to their largest in a month, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday. [ID:nN1E7AH1JL]

"What is surprising is how little the USD has gained over the last few months, not how much it has gained," said Steven Englander, global head of currency research at CitiFX, a division of Citigroup (NYSE: C - news) , in New York.

"The key to more pronounced USD strengthening would be backing away from the Fed (Federal Reserve) from its 'no hike ever' rhetoric or a complete euro zone collapse," he said. "Barring such moves, the inclination of investors will be sell USD as soon as risk appetite stops deteriorating."

Against the yen, the dollar slid as low as 76.575 on trading platform EBS , the weakest level since Japan (EUREX: FMJP.EX - news) 's massive intervention on Oct (KOSDAQ: 039200.KQ - news) . 31. It was last down 0.1 percent at 76.86. (Additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Wanfeng Zhou in New York and Nia Williams in London; Editing by Dan Grebler)

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FOREX-Euro edges aloft vs dollar, though gains might fade

Sorry, I could not read the content fromt this page.

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FOREX-Euro seen vulnerable, rises on short-covering

Fri Nov 18, 2011 12:16am EST

* Euro in downtrend though dump approaching to be light -trader

* Mounting risk hatred supports dollar

* Aussie trims detriment after dipping next relation vs USD

* Worries grow as European bank appropriation condition tightens

By Masayuki Kitano

SINGAPORE, Nov 18 (Reuters) – The euro edged aloft on
Friday as traders lonesome brief positions and requisitioned profits
after a new dump to a five-week low, and a single
currency was approaching to sojourn on a downtrend given of the
spiralling euro section debt crisis.

The spotlight fell on Spain on Thursday, that had to pay
the top rate to sell a 10-year debt given 1997, only shy
of a 7 percent symbol seen as unsustainable.

The euro, however, showed some resilience in a arise of the
Spanish bond auction, handling to reason above a five-week trough
of $1.3421 strike in Thursday’s Asian trade.

The euro is being upheld by brief covering, pronounced Jesper
Bargmann, Asia conduct of G11 mark FX for RBS in Singapore, adding
that such profit-taking seductiveness is approaching to insist and limit
the speed of a euro’s declines.

“Market is really fervent to sell a euro and also fervent to
take some profits,” Bargmann said. “So we are saying seductiveness on
the dips to buy.”

“There’s copiousness of two-way seductiveness in a euro now,” he
added. “There’s a lot of brief positions out there and people
are fervent to book some profit. So it’s not an easy trade.”

The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.3484, though is still
down roughly 2.4 percent for a week, on lane for a biggest
weekly commission decrease given early September.

Selling vigour opposite a singular banking has intensified
this week as misunderstanding in euro section bond markets widespread to
AAA-rated France.

The euro is approaching to exam a early Oct low of $1.3145
eventually, though a skirmish will substantially be gradual, said
Bargmann.

“I consider we’ll mangle $1.30 though we consider it’s going to be in a
fairly nurse fashion,” he said, adding that there were likely
to be some spikes and bouts of short-covering in between.

Support for a euro lies during around $1.3405, a 76.4
percent retracement of a Oct rally. The bottom of the
weekly Ichimoku cloud also offers support nearby that level,
coming in during $1.3408.

A merchant for a Japanese brokerage in Tokyo pronounced there was
talk that a euro choice position with a strike during $1.35 was set
to end today, and that players holding such a position may
buy a euro on dips and sell into rallies.

“The instruction is substantially toward a downside though looking at
how a marketplace has been relocating and positioning, we have to be
wary of short-covering,” a merchant said.

DOLLAR FUNDINS STRAINS

The deepening of a euro zone’s debt predicament has caused
heightened highlight in dollar appropriation markets this week.

The reward for swapping euros into dollars rose on
Thursday, with a three-month cross-currency basement barter around
6 basement points wider during -136 basement points, a many given the
2008 financial crisis.

“The delayed suit sight pile-up continues, with USD appropriation now
clearly a bigger emanate as contamination spreads some-more deeply into
Spain,” pronounced Sebastien Galy, strategist during Societe Generale.

The Australian dollar, that tends to come underneath vigour in
times of marketplace stress, dipped to as low as $0.9973 earlier,
matching a five-week low overwhelmed on Thursday.

The Aussie after pared some waste to change hands at
$1.0002, down 0.1 percent from late U.S. trade on
Thursday.

“While risks to a downside seem some-more apparent, it’s
worth observant that a banking is now oversold on several
momentum-based indicators,” pronounced David Scutt, a merchant during Arab
Bank Australia in Sydney.

“Keeping this in mind, should any good news surrounding
Europe strike a screens, it’s approaching to see a Aussie spring
higher on a behind of brief covering.”

Against a yen, a dollar dipped 0.1 percent to 76.87 yen
, with investors heedful of serve Japanese movement in the
wake of a large involvement on Oct. 31.

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FOREX-Euro firms though opinion grave on swelling debt crisis

SymbolPriceChange039200.KQ4,310.00-560.00ACA.MI4.46-0.18CBKF.EX1.72+0.19{“s” : “039200.KQ,ACA.MI,CBKF.EX”,”k” : “a00,a50,b00,b60,c10,g00,h00,l10,p20,t10,v00?,”o” : “”,”j” : “”}

* Short covering boosts euro forward of weekend

* Debt predicament still points to weaker singular currency

* Interbank appropriation strains boost dollar demand

(Updates levels, adds details, comments)

LONDON, Nov 18 (Reuters) – The euro rose opposite the
dollar on Friday as investors unwound bearish bets on a single
currency to book increase forward of a weekend but, with a euro
zone debt predicament escalating, ardour to sell on upticks was
high.

Pressure was ascent on a European Central Bank to step
up a bond-buying programme with Italian and Spanish bond
yields tighten to unsustainable levels and plummeting direct from
other, real-money investors.

Until a resolution emerges that creates a ECB a lender of
last resort, any gains in a euro are expected to be fleeting.

“With so many adult in a atmosphere there’s zero else to concentration on
apart from a immediate, that is that a euro section looks to
be streamer into a precipice. Ahead of a weekend we don’t
think anyone is prepared to opposite that view,” Jane Foley, senior
currency strategist during Rabobank.

The euro rose 0.4 percent to $1.3510, not distant from
its five-week low of $1.3421 struck on Thursday and still down
roughly 2 percent for a week.

Support for a singular banking lies during around $1.3405, the
76.4 percent retracement of final month’s convene from around
$1.3145 on Oct (KOSDAQ: 039200.KQ – news) . 4 to a high of $1.4248 on Oct. 27. Large option
expiries during $1.3500 and $1.3550 are also expected to lean trade.

“The marketplace has an ardour to take on new shorts because
without a ECB there doesn’t seem to be any other customer in the
European emperor debt market,” Foley said.

Bond marketplace experts polled by Reuters saw a 50/50 chance
that a ECB will enhance bond purchases to rivet in outright
quantitative easing.

Prospects for a euro have dimmed this week on signs that
the predicament was swelling to core euro section countries such as
France, with many investors still looking to sell into every
rally.

With German bond yields no longer descending as peripheral
yields rise, analysts suggested that portfolio adjustments were
not only relocating from marginal debt to core Bunds, though that
investors were abandoning a euro section altogether.

Traders contend that given a bulk of investors have already
been using bearish positions on a euro in a past few
months there is singular range for a banking to tumble further,
despite what some politicians have described as a misfortune crisis
in a segment given World War II.

While highlighting a risk that a brief fist could
push euro/dollar aloft in a nearby term, Commerzbank (EUREX: CBKF.EX – news)
strategists pronounced a prevalent trend was for a reduce euro.

“Courageous marketplace participants can sell a euro around
$1.3550-60, we would start cutting euro/dollar during $1.3650,”
the bank pronounced in a note.

FUNDING STRAINS

With investors shunning euro section assets, appropriation strains
were augmenting for euro section financial institutions, boding ill
for a euro and other riskier resources while charity support for
the viewed reserve of a U.S. dollar.

The reward for swapping euros into dollars rose, with the
three-month cross-currency basement barter hitting
138.5 basement points, a top given a 2008 financial crisis.

“So distant this has not had a thespian outcome on a euro, but
it is expected to be behind some of a new weakening,” said
FxPro’s arch economist Simon Smith.

Analysts pronounced high appropriation costs were pulling banks into
shorter generation appropriation and could widespread into mark currency
markets, weighing on a euro.

With many investors preferring safety, a yen outperformed
the dollar. The dollar dipped to a two-and-a-half week low
against a yen of 76.63 yen.

“Generally protected havens are doing really good during a impulse and
once you’ve filled adult your bearing on dollars, a yen is the
next one in line, irrespective of either we competence be worried
about intervention,” pronounced Adam Myers, comparison FX strategist at
Credit Agricole (Milan: ACA.MI – news) in London.

This tumble extended a yen’s delayed climb behind towards levels
where Japanese authorities intervened on Oct. 31 to break the
currency. However, Myers pronounced a stream gait of strengthening
meant another turn of involvement was doubtful to come until
next year.

The Swiss franc also outperformed a dollar, pushing
dollar/Swiss franc down 1 percent on a day to 0.91160 francs.
The dollar was final trade during 0.9145 francs, down 0.8 percent
on a day.

(Additional stating by Pratima Desai; Editing by Susan
Fenton)

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