Showing posts with label dollar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dollar. Show all posts

Saturday, 25 February 2012

FOREX-Euro relief proves fleeting; yen hits 6-mth low vs dollar

* Euro backs off previous day's high

* Markets take profits on recent gains following Greek bailout deal

* Dollar/yen stays firm, touches fresh 6-month high (Updates prices, adds comments)

SINGAPORE, Feb 22 (Reuters) - The euro struggled to make headway on Wednesday, having retreated from near two-week highs as optimism over the long-awaited Greek bailout deal quickly gave way to concerns about economic growth and implementation risks.

The yen dipped against the dollar and touched a fresh six-month low, staying on the defensive after the Bank of Japan (EUREX: FMJP.EX - news) 's surprise monetary easing last week.

The euro held steady from late U.S. trade on Tuesday at $1.3232, down from Tuesday's high of $1.3293, which was the euro's highest level since Feb. 9. It faces resistance at $1.3308, the 100-day moving average.

"The euro had priced in a lot of the good news, in the sense that it had priced in already some form of agreement," said Mitul Kotecha, head of global foreign exchange strategy for Credit Agricole (Milan: ACA.MI - news) in Hong Kong.

"It's not surprising to see it struggling to break higher," Kotecha added.

While Greece's aid package helped ease fears of an immediate default, the country's economic outlook remained anything but rosy, a problem that could yet derail its efforts to meet tough cost-cutting measures.

Parliaments in three countries that have been most critical of bailouts - Germany, the Netherlands and Finland - must now approve the package. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who caused an outcry by suggesting that Greece was a "bottomless pit", said he was confident it would be passed.

The dollar index edged up 0.1 percent to 79.136 as the euro floundered.

Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.3 percent to 79.961 yen at one point, its highest level since early August 2011.

The dollar has rallied roughly 5 percent from lows around 76.00 yen hit in early February, spurred in part by yen-weakness after the Bank of Japan's surprise easing last week.

"The pace of the yen's move in recent days looks unsustainable. But the yen has the ability to weaken further, although it's not going to do so in a straight line," analysts at Societe Generale (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) wrote in a note.

A trader for a Japanese bank in Tokyo said dollar offers were lined up at levels above 80 yen, while dollar buyers such as Japanese importers were placing bids at levels around 79 yen.

The dollar is now testing strong technical resistance from a cloud on the weekly Ichimoku chart.

The dollar has not managed to stay above the weekly cloud for any sustained period since mid-2007, and a breach of that resistance could give the dollar additional momentum against the yen.

The dollar has clawed above the bottom of the cloud at 79.73 yen, and faces more resistance at the cloud top, which comes in at 80.94 this week.

The Australian dollar held steady at $1.0658, more than a full cent lower from this week's high of $1.0817.

The Aussie dollar showed limited reaction to data showing that China's manufacturing sector contracted in February for the fourth straight month as new export orders dropped sharply in the face of the euro area debt crisis.

The HSBC flash purchasing managers index, the earliest indicator of China's industrial activity, rose to a four-month-high at 49.7 in February. The PMI has been below 50, which demarcates expansion from contraction, for most of the last eight months.

China's economic outlook is a focal point for market players, who fret that risk sentiment could take a hit if the country's economic growth were to slow down too sharply. (Additional reporting by Ian Chua in Sydney and Hideyuki Sano in Tokyo; Editing by Ramya Venugopal)


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Monday, 5 December 2011

Reduced Interest Rate on Dollar Swaps

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Sunday, 4 December 2011

FOREX-Euro rises for 4th day vs dollar, but debt woes linger

17:22, Thursday 1 December 2011

* Euro lifted by good demand at Spain's auction

* Short-covering may lift euro, but debt worries remain

* ECB's Draghi says downside risks have increased

* Strong U.S. ISM number adds to U.S. recovery hopes (Updates prices, adds quote, U.S. data)

NEW YORK (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) , Dec 1 (Reuters) - The euro rose for a fourth straight session against the dollar on Thursday, bolstered by generally successful Spanish and French debt auctions, although traders were inclined to view its gains as good selling opportunities.

Spain sold 3.75 billion euros of three bonds at the top of the targeted range, although its borrowing cost was the highest in 14 years and at levels seen as unsustainable for public finances. France also found demand for its sale of 4.35 billion euros of debt in several maturities. [ID:nL5E7N11J2]

The euro's gains have dissipated a bit in midday trading as stocks turned mostly negative, with traders saying investors are consolidating their positions ahead of Friday's all-important U.S. non-farm payrolls report.

"We have had some big moves in the euro the last couple of days and a lot of event risks so the market is taking a little bit of a breather and consolidating their gains before tomorrow's big U.S. employment number," said Steven Butler, director of foreign-exchange trading at Scotia Capital in Toronto.

Investors are looking at 122,000 new jobs added to the U.S. economy last month and a steady unemployment rate of 9.0 percent. A higher-than-expected number could whet risk appetite once again and lift risk-friendly currencies such as the euro.

The euro was last up 0.3 percent at $1.34811.

Traders said news that the International Monetary Fund will likely cut its global growth forecasts in late January took the steam out of the rally in risky assets. For the IMF (Berlin: MXG1.BE - news) story, click on [ID:nW1E7MS00Q].

On Wednesday, the euro had hit a one-week high of $1.35337 on trading platform EBS after central banks of the United States and the euro zone, as well as Canada, Britain, Japan (EUREX: FMJP.EX - news) and Switzerland cut the cost of dollar loans to the banking system. [ID:nL5E7MU118]

The euro also rose to a two-week high against the yen

A break above $1.3533 though could see the euro rise toward its Nov. 18 high of $1.3615, analysts said. If it fails to retest Wednesday's high, however, the rally may peter out.

An increase in the Institute for Supply Management's U.S. manufacturing index for November (Stuttgart: A0Z24E - news) to 52.7 pushed the euro up against the dollar above $1.35 earlier as it increased the market's appetite for risk and reinforced the view that the world's largest economy is on a stable path to recovery. For the data, click on [ID:nN1E7B008U].

In midday trading, the dollar index was down 0.1 percent at 78.277, though off the 77.923 low hit on Wednesday.

Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities in Toronto, said hints from French President Nicolas Sarkozy about considerable progress on fiscal integration within the euro zone could see a push toward $1.3554 in the euro. He added, though, that the market's strategy remained selling the euro on any significant rally.

Many analysts are awaiting Sarkozy's speech on the euro- zone crisis at around 12:30 p.m. (1730 GMT) for an update as to what euro-zone policy-makers have planned to prevent the crisis from spreading to other healthier economies in the region.

On Thursday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi highlighted the euro zone's fragile outlook, saying downside risks to the economy have increased and that the bank's temporary measures are only limited. For more click on [ID:nF9E7LQ00L], [ID:nL5E7MU5LM].

That reinforced a market view that the ECB could cut interest rates and extend its liquidity measures when it meets to decide on monetary policy next week -- and this could well negate the euro's rally.

More important for markets will be whether European leaders are able to agree on a comprehensive solution to tackle the debt crisis at a European Union summit on Dec. 9. (Editing by Jan Paschal)


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FOREX-Euro gains 4th day vs dollar, but trend seen tenuous

19:49, Thursday 1 December 2011

* Euro lifted by good demand at Spain's auction

* France's Sarkozy outlines euro crisis stance

* ECB's Draghi says downside risks have increased

* Strong U.S. ISM number adds to U.S. recovery hopes (Updates prices, adds quotes, links and graphics, changes byline)

NEW YORK (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) , Dec 1 (Reuters) - The euro gained against the dollar for a fourth straight session on Thursday, a trend seen as tenuous given unresolved fiscal and economic issues in the region and despite initiatives from global central banks.

While the single-currency was buoyed by generally successful Spanish and French debt auctions, traders were inclined to view gains as good selling opportunities.

While Spain sold 3.75 billion euros of three bonds at the top of the targeted range, they were at levels seen as unsustainable for public finances. France also found demand for its sale of 4.35 billion euros of debt in several maturities. [ID:nL5E7N11J2]

The euro reached a high of $1.3521 , according to Reuters data but gains dissipated in early afternoon New York trading as stocks turned mostly negative after Wednesday's record rally.

Investors were said to be consolidating their positions ahead of Friday's all-important U.S. non-farm payrolls report for November (Stuttgart: A0Z24E - news) .

"We have had some big moves in the euro the last couple of days and a lot of event risks, so the market is taking a little bit of a breather and consolidating their gains before tomorrow's big U.S. employment number," said Steven Butler, director of foreign-exchange trading at Scotia Capital in Toronto.

Investors are looking at 122,000 new jobs added to the U.S. economy last month and a steady unemployment rate of 9.0 percent. A higher-than-expected number could whet risk appetite once again and lift risk-friendly currencies such as the euro.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the European Central Bank is independent and will remain so. [ID:nL5E7N13N6] [ID:nP6E7LO02B]

The euro was last up 0.3 percent at $1.3472. A break above $1.3533 could see the euro rise toward its Nov. 18 high of $1.3615, analysts said. If it fails to retest Wednesday's high, however, the rally may peter out.

On Wednesday, the euro had hit a one-week high of $1.35337 on trading platform EBS after central banks of the United States and the euro zone, as well as Canada, Britain, Japan (EUREX: FMJP.EX - news) and Switzerland cut the cost of dollar loans to the banking system. [ID:nL5E7MU118]

Although investors cheered Wednesday's joint central bank action, they are worried that the debt crisis remains unresolved, with little time for politicians to find a solution.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi signaled it stood ready to act more aggressively to fight Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) 's debt crisis if political leaders agree next week on much tighter budget controls in the 17-nation euro zone. He also painted a dark picture of the state of the banking system. [ID:nL5E7N11XQ]

Draghi, however, did not spell out what action the ECB might take.

The ECB is under huge political and market pressure to massively step up purchases of euro zone government bonds or lend money to the IMF (Berlin: MXG1.BE - news) to support ailing Italy and Spain.

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Other stories on euro zone crisis [ID:nL5E7LR1WL]

Analysis on drive to boost IMF resources [ID:nN1E7AT27A]

BREAKINGVIEWS-Euro-IMF scheme questions [ID:nL4E7N11SW] Euro zone in graphics http://r.reuters.com/hyb65p

Market disconnect graphic http://r.reuters.com/van64s

Interactive timeline http://link.reuters.com/rev89r ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

An increase in the Institute for Supply Management's U.S. manufacturing index fueled the market's appetite for risk and reinforced the view that the world's largest economy is on a stable path to recovery. [ID:nN1E7B008U]

The dollar index was last down 0.1 percent at 78.292, though off the 77.923 low hit on Wednesday. Against the yen, the dollar was up 0.2 percent at 77.64 . (Additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Kenneth Barry)


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Thursday, 17 November 2011

FOREX-Euro falls vs US dollar with more losses eyed

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* Italy, Greece appoint new government leaders

* Italian debt yields resume rise after auction

* Yen strongest since last intervention by Japan (EUREX: FMJP.EX - news) (Updates prices, adds details)

NEW YORK (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) , Nov 14 (Reuters) - The euro slid against the U.S. dollar on Monday as new governments in Italy and Greece failed to ease fears about the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis, a crisis that German Chancellor Angela Merkel termed Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) 's "toughest hour since World War Two."

Italy paid a euro-era high price to sell five-year bonds on Monday, just a day after former European Commissioner Mario Monti was named to lead the country -- a move that had been hoped would help restore investor confidence.

News that Italian Treasury Director General Vittorio Grilli is considering resigning as early as Tuesday to take up a job in the private sector with investment bank J.P. Morgan (KOSDAQ: 019990.KQ - news) , according to sources, added to the euro's woes. For details, see [ID:nR1E7MC00A]

In Greece, new Prime Minister Lucas Papademos, a former European Central Bank vice president, will have to win Wednesday's confidence vote in his cabinet before meeting euro-zone finance ministers in Brussels on Thursday, as uncertainty persisted over whether Athens will receive the next tranche of aid to avoid a default. [ID:nL5E7ME25X]

Papademos said on Monday that Greece's only choice was to remain in the euro zone, and the country had to widen its tax base and fight rampant tax evasion, a problem identified by economists as a serious hindrance to Greece's budget performance. [ID:nA8E7MA013]

"Like many times before, the Europeans delivered the necessary policy response to avert a meltdown with both Italy and Greece moving to install national unity governments, led by technocrats," said Mark McCormick, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

But "this is unlikely to be a silver bullet and many questions still remain," he said. "Outside of brief short- covering rallies, we expect the euro to remain under pressure in the coming weeks, and ultimately end the year around $1.29."

German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that Europe faced its "toughest hour since World War Two" and urged her party to set aside misgivings about the euro and accept closer political integration as a solution to the bloc's deepening debt crisis.

But she offered no new ideas for resolving the crisis that has forced bailouts of Greece, Ireland (Xetra: A0Q8L3 - news) and Portugal, and stirred doubts about the survival of the 13-year-old currency area. [ID:nLDE7AD01R]

The euro fell 0.8 percent to $1.3636 . It had fallen as low as $1.3590 on Reuters data after breaking below support at its 100-week moving average around $1.3638. It also slid 0.8 percent to 105.15 yen .

Further downside support lies around $1.3360, the low in September, followed by $1.3145, the October low, technical analysts said. Resistance is seen near $1.3870, its high set on Nov. 1, with offers from Asian sovereign investors reportedly just above that.

The euro-zone common currency briefly pared losses after an auction of 3 billion euros of five-year Italian bonds drew decent demand, despite yields hitting 6.29 percent, a high since the euro was introduced in 1999.

But the relief was short-lived. [ID:nL5E7ME1WB1]

In a sign that the debt crisis may spread further, Spanish 10-year bond yields rose above 6 percent on Monday for the first time since the European Central Bank started to buy the country's bonds in August.[ID:nL5E7ME2C8]

YEN STRENGTH

The dollar was unchanged at 77.12 yen , after earlier falling as low as 76.811 on electronic trading platform EBS , its lowest since Japan's massive yen-selling intervention efforts on Oct (KOSDAQ: 039200.KQ - news) . 31.

Dollar/yen has now broken through the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the move on intervention on an intraday basis both Friday and Monday.

"Intervention concerns are likely to see yen advances tempered as Japanese officials continue to eye the FX markets for 'excess speculation,' with pledges from Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda that actions will be taken to aggressively combat 'excessive currency fluctuations,'" said Michael Boutros, currency analyst at DailyFX.com.

The head of the International Monetary Fund said on Saturday that Japan's recent currency intervention aimed at curbing excess volatility was in line with the spirit of G7 and G20, although concerted action is the most efficient way. [ID:nT9E7HU00M]

Traders said interventions, particularly unilateral actions such as Japan's, are unlikely to have a long-term impact and the dollar may slip on any signs of problems in the U.S. economy. (Reporting by Nick Olivari and Wanfeng Zhou; Editing by Jan Paschal)


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Wednesday, 16 November 2011

FOREX-Euro falls for 3rd day vs dollar on debt worries

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* Euro hits five-week low, eyes Oct (KOSDAQ: 039200.KQ - news) . trough around $1.3140

* ECB's buying Italian bonds fails to bring down yields

* More euro losses seen as crisis spreads to core Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) (Updates prices, adds comment, details, changes dateline, previous LONDON)

NEW YORK (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) , Nov 16 (Reuters) - The euro fell for a third straight session against the dollar to hit a five-week low on Wednesday as rising French and Italian borrowing costs heightened worries about contagion in the euro zone debt crisis.

The European Central Bank's buying of Italian and Spanish bonds brought only temporarily relief and yields resumed climbing after the intervention stopped as investors doubted how much the ECB can buy to support the bond market.

Analysts expect the euro to remain under pressure in the near term as troubles in the periphery spread to core nations in Europe and as policymakers remain behind the curve in finding a solution to the region's debt problems.

"The outlook for the euro is worsening gradually because clearly there's been contagion in the euro zone debt markets," said Samarjit Shankar, managing director of global FX strategy at BNY Mellon in Boston.

The euro fell 0.3 percent to $1.3493 , having earlier dropped as low as $1.3427 on Reuters data, the weakest level since Oct. 10.

The common currency also came under pressure after Italian bank Unicredit (MDD: UCG.MDD - news) said it would ask the ECB to extend its access to funding, stoking concerns about the health of euro zone banks. [ID:nL5E7MG1ZJ]

"We are likely to stay in a fairly stressed environment until banks and asset managers have sufficiently deleveraged," said Sebastien Galy, currency strategist at Societe Generale (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) in London. "It continues to suggest that euro/dollar is steadily heading for the $1.3140 October low."

Traders said the euro's latest decline was driven by selling from macro funds. Against the yen, the single currency slipped 0.3 percent to 103.93 yen, having fallen as low as 103.37 yen, its lowest since Oct. 10.

ECB purchases initially pushed Italian yields down to around 6.83 percent and sparked a rebound in the euro. But yields later climbed back above 7 percent, a level widely deemed unsustainable.

In a sign that the debt crisis is spreading to the core, the yield spread between French 10-year government bonds over German Bunds rose to its highest since the euro's launch in 1999. France is the second-largest economy in the euro zone.

ECB ROLE

France and Germany, Europe's two central powers, clashed over whether the European Central Bank should intervene to halt the euro zone's accelerating debt crisis as modest bond purchases failed to stop the rout.

A French government spokeswoman said the ECB's role is to ensure the stability of the euro, but also the financial stability of Europe. But German Chancellor Angela Merkel made clear Berlin would resist pressure for the central bank to take a bigger role in resolving the debt crisis. [ID:nL5E7MG3AP]

In Italy, Mario Monti formed a new technocrat government on Wednesday, but analysts were cautious as to whether the move would be enough to calm financial markets.

"A new government is coming in Italy but there's still no improvement on bond markets so it's hard to see what can be done in the short term to reverse this," said Lutz Karpowitz, currency strategist at Commerzbank (Other OTC: CRZBF.PK - news) in Frankfurt.

Some in the market see further downside for the euro as funding strains among European banks are evident with euro/dollar three-month cross currency basis swap spreads widening to a level not seen since late 2008.

Against the yen, the dollar slipped 0.1 percent to 76.99 , while the dollar rose 0.3 percent to 78.132 against a basket of currencies . (Additional reporting by Naomi Tajitsu in London; Editing by Dan Grebler)


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