Showing posts with label ahead. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ahead. Show all posts

Monday, 5 December 2011

FOREX-Euro consolidates ahead of U.S. jobs data

* Markets awaiting U.S. non-farm payrolls data

* Euro seen consolidating in Asian session

* Next (Xetra: 779551 - news) week's EU Summit key to year-end sentiment

SYDNEY, Dec 2 (Reuters) - The euro and commodity currencies struggled to make much headway in Asia on Friday, continuing to consolidate hefty gains made earlier in the week as investors retreated to the sidelines ahead of the closely watched U.S. non-farm payrolls report.

Due at 1330 GMT, the labour data is expected to show an increase of 122,000 jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 9.0 percent. A positive surprise is likely to underpin risk sentiment, while a weaker-than-expected outcome could prompt investors to take more profits on recent gains.

The euro stood at $1.3460 versus $1.3457 late in New York. It was off a one-week peak of $1.3531 set on Wednesday after major central banks moved to ease a credit squeeze stemming from the euro zone debt crisis.

But a lack of hard action to resolve the euro zone's debt problems had seen the rally come to a halt and left investors looking towards the jobs report as well as next week's European Central Bank (Other OTC: CBSU.PK - news) policy meeting and the EU summit for fresh cues.

If political leaders can agree next week on much tighter budget controls, that could pave the way for more aggressive action from the European Central Bank (ECB), as signalled by the bank's new chief on Thursday.

"Our economists believe that a satisfactory fiscal compact agreed upon at the summit next week should open the door to ECB quantitative easing, which we expect could come as soon as Q1 2012," wrote analysts at BNP Paribas (Other OTC: BNPQF.PK - news) .

But analysts at Societe Generale (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) warned a lack of progress on the root causes of the euro zone crisis will translate into wider bond yield spreads and a weaker euro, in January.

With the euro on the front foot for now, the dollar index slipped 0.1 percent to 78.305. Against the yen, the dollar was at 77.75, still hemmed in a 77-78 range with investors wary of more massive intervention by Japan (EUREX: FMJP.EX - news) .

Commodity (Euronext: COMIN.NX - news) currencies, while off the week's peak, stayed well supported. The Australian dollar stood at $1.0227, not far off a three-week high of $1.0335 set earlier in the week.

It is on track to end the week up more than 4 percent. Key resistance is seen around $1.0337, a level representing the 61.8 percent retracement of the November (Stuttgart: A0Z24E - news) decline.

There is no major data in Asia, while euro zone producer inflation numbers are due later in the day. (Editing by Ed Davies)


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FOREX-Euro falls 1st time in 5 days ahead of key events=2

Currency bid prices at 2:18 p.m. EST (1918 GMT). All data taken from Reuters calculated from the levels in the previous New York (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) session.

Last US Close Pct YTD Pct 2010

Dec. 1 Change Change Close ------------------------------------------------------------- Euro/dlr 1.3398 1.3463 -0.48 +0.16 1.3377 Dlr/yen 77.940 77.740 +0.26 -3.96 81.150 Euro/yen 104.43 104.60 -0.16 -3.87 108.63 Dlr/swiss 0.9206 0.9154 +0.57 -1.38 0.9335 Stg/dlr 1.5590 1.5693 -0.66 -0.06 1.5599 Dlr/cad 1.0181 1.0139 +0.41 +2.15 0.9967 Aus/dlr 1.0221 1.0227 -0.06 +0.18 1.0203 Euro/swiss 1.2334 1.2323 +0.09 -1.23 1.2488 Euro/stg 0.8593 0.8579 +0.16 +0.24 0.8572 Nzd/dlr 0.7780 0.7782 -0.03 -0.14 0.7791 Dlr/Norw 5.7890 5.8036 -0.25 -0.56 5.8218 Euro/Norw 7.7548 7.8131 -0.75 -0.45 7.7895 Dlr/Swed 6.7557 6.7704 -0.22 +0.68 6.7098 Euro/Swed 9.0492 9.1154 -0.73 +0.76 8.9809 All spots Tokyo spots Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) spots Volatilities Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ World central bank news Economic Forecasts... Official rates... Forex Diary....... Top events........ Diaries........... Diaries Index........ Press Digests..... Polls on G7 economies.. European markets......


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Sunday, 4 December 2011

FOREX-Euro falls 1st time in 5 days ahead of key events

* U.S. unemployment rate falls to 8.6 percent

* ECB's Stark says crisis cure needed to avoid disaster

* Euro reverses gains ahead of key event risks next week

Updates prices, adds quotes, links and graphics, changes byline)

NEW YORK (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) , Dec 2 (Reuters) - The euro fell against the dollar for the first time in five sessions on Friday, with investors wary of placing aggressive bets in favor of the currency ahead of a European Central Bank meeting and a European Union summit next week.

The euro zone's common currency posted sharp gains after data showed the U.S. unemployment rate fell to a 2-1/2 year low in November (Stuttgart: A0Z24E - news) . Reports the ECB may lend to weak euro zone countries through the International Monetary Fund in hopes of easing the the debt crisis also supported it earlier in the global session.

But the euro reversed course on various market rumors, including one of a potential downgrade of Spain. Investors were also hesitant to buy the single currency in the aftermath of a strong rally this week.

"It's a very rumor-driven market so there's a lot of caution," said David Watt, senior currency strategist at RBC (MCX: RBCI.ME - news) Capital Markets in Toronto. "We also have an ECB meeting next week, which may probably cut rates," he added, noting a potential negative for the euro.

The ECB hinted Thursday it was ready to move more aggressively to tackle the crisis if regional politicians agree on much tighter budget controls, though it stopped short of detailing what exact measures it would take.

Leaders must urgently find a solution to the euro zone debt crisis or there will be widespread macroeconomic and financial disaster, Juergen Stark, one of the European Central Bank's top policymakers, warned on Friday.

The euro fell as low as $1.33630, blowing through stops at $1.34150. It was last at $1.3398 on trading platform EBS, down 0.5 percent on the day. It rose to a 10-day high of $1.35505 immediately after the U.S. non-farm payrolls report.

The U.S. unemployment rate fell to a 2-1/2 year low in November, though the pace of hiring remained too slow to suggest a significant quickening of the recovery.

The report could temper the appetite among some Federal (SES: E1:F20.SI - news) Reserve officials to ease monetary policy further.

"I guess with the superficial improvements in the U.S. jobs report, that suggests a third round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve is further away, which is a positive for the dollar," said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at Forex.com in Bedminster, New Jersey.

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INSTANT VIEW- US jobless rate drops

Graphic - U.S. payrolls: http://link.reuters.com/suf45s

Graphic - U.S. jobless rate, payroll change. http://r.reuters.com/was53s

Graphic - U.S. nonfarm payrolls by type. http://r.reuters.com/kus53s

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Despite the euro's drop, it was on pace to end the week higher by about 0.4 percent, its best weekly performance since late October.

Morgan Stanley (EUREX: DWDF.EX - news) said it was using the euro's gains this week to establish a renewed bearish position on the single currency, sticking to its view of more weakness in the currency in the midterm.

"We continue to look for the market to be disappointed by the European Summit," Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note, adding that they expected the euro to underperform commodity currencies, particularly the Canadian and Australian dollars.

The dollar rose 0.4 percent against a currency basket , to 78.646. Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.3 percent to 77.94 yen.

With the U.S. jobs data out of the way, markets were awaiting a European Union summit set for Dec. 9 for signs of progress on the debt crisis.

French and German leaders are to meet on Dec. 5 to outline joint proposals to be discussed at the EU meeting, which is viewed as yet another make-or-break meeting for the 2-year-old currency bloc.

(Additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Dan Grebler)


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