Showing posts with label consolidates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label consolidates. Show all posts

Monday, 5 December 2011

FOREX-Euro consolidates ahead of U.S. jobs data

* Markets awaiting U.S. non-farm payrolls data

* Euro seen consolidating in Asian session

* Next (Xetra: 779551 - news) week's EU Summit key to year-end sentiment

SYDNEY, Dec 2 (Reuters) - The euro and commodity currencies struggled to make much headway in Asia on Friday, continuing to consolidate hefty gains made earlier in the week as investors retreated to the sidelines ahead of the closely watched U.S. non-farm payrolls report.

Due at 1330 GMT, the labour data is expected to show an increase of 122,000 jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 9.0 percent. A positive surprise is likely to underpin risk sentiment, while a weaker-than-expected outcome could prompt investors to take more profits on recent gains.

The euro stood at $1.3460 versus $1.3457 late in New York. It was off a one-week peak of $1.3531 set on Wednesday after major central banks moved to ease a credit squeeze stemming from the euro zone debt crisis.

But a lack of hard action to resolve the euro zone's debt problems had seen the rally come to a halt and left investors looking towards the jobs report as well as next week's European Central Bank (Other OTC: CBSU.PK - news) policy meeting and the EU summit for fresh cues.

If political leaders can agree next week on much tighter budget controls, that could pave the way for more aggressive action from the European Central Bank (ECB), as signalled by the bank's new chief on Thursday.

"Our economists believe that a satisfactory fiscal compact agreed upon at the summit next week should open the door to ECB quantitative easing, which we expect could come as soon as Q1 2012," wrote analysts at BNP Paribas (Other OTC: BNPQF.PK - news) .

But analysts at Societe Generale (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) warned a lack of progress on the root causes of the euro zone crisis will translate into wider bond yield spreads and a weaker euro, in January.

With the euro on the front foot for now, the dollar index slipped 0.1 percent to 78.305. Against the yen, the dollar was at 77.75, still hemmed in a 77-78 range with investors wary of more massive intervention by Japan (EUREX: FMJP.EX - news) .

Commodity (Euronext: COMIN.NX - news) currencies, while off the week's peak, stayed well supported. The Australian dollar stood at $1.0227, not far off a three-week high of $1.0335 set earlier in the week.

It is on track to end the week up more than 4 percent. Key resistance is seen around $1.0337, a level representing the 61.8 percent retracement of the November (Stuttgart: A0Z24E - news) decline.

There is no major data in Asia, while euro zone producer inflation numbers are due later in the day. (Editing by Ed Davies)


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Sunday, 4 December 2011

FOREX-Euro consolidates with focus on US jobs, EU action

* Markets awaiting U.S. non-farm payrolls data

* Euro seen consolidating in Asian session

* Next (Xetra: 779551 - news) week's ECB, EU meets key to year-end sentiment

* Kiwi slightly higher, fails to break above this week's high

TOKYO, Dec 2 (Reuters) - The euro struggled to make much headway on Friday, consolidating this week's gains as traders stuck to the sidelines ahead of a crucial U.S. jobs report and event-packed week that could prove decisive for the currency bloc.

The non-farm payrolls report is expected to show an increase of 122,000 jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 9.0 percent. A positive surprise would underpin a recent string of solid U.S. data and bolster risk sentiment, while a weaker-than-expected outcome could prompt investors to take more profits on recent gains.

The euro changed hands at $1.3468 against $1.3457 late in New York (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) . It was off a one-week peak of $1.3534 set on Wednesday after major central banks moved to ease a credit squeeze stemming from the crisis.

"The move by the central banks simply eased liquidity worries for now. The big-bazooka solutions are coming next week and the euro's strength hinges on their feasibility," said Sumino Kamei, senior currency analyst at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in Tokyo.

French and German leaders are meeting next Monday to outline joint proposals to put to a Dec. 9 EU summit, seen as -- yet another -- make-or-break meeting for the 12-year-old currency bloc.

"EU leaders have disappointed in the past, so nobody is naive enough to simply pile into the euro on mere statements, especially since Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) faces serious economic headwinds anyway," Kamei said.

She (SNP: ^SHEY - news) added, however, that the currency may move another leg higher if the actions are strongly supported by the European Central Bank (Other OTC: CBSU.PK - news) and even if the move up is not sustained, it may still prove an important chance to sell into a rally.

The central bank hinted on Thursday it was ready to move more aggressively to tackle the crisis if politicians agree on much tighter budget controls in the euro zone, though it stopped short of detailing what exact measures it would take.

Economists also expect the ECB to help banks and an economy on the verge of recession by cutting interest rates next week and announcing longer-term cheap liquidity tenders with easier collateral rules. Markets are pricing in a 25 basis point cut to 1.0 percent at ECB's Dec. 8. policy meeting.

The common currency briefly nudged higher on buying by a U.S. bank, which traders said was neither fundamentals- nor news-based and occurred in a thin Friday trade. They also reported some sell orders from short-term accounts, underscoring a still fragile sentiment about the currency.

Decent stop-loss euro bids were spotted in the $1.3520-25 area, while offers were lurking near $1.3500. One possible resistance for the currency lied near $1.3525, the bottom of the weekly Ichimoku cloud.

"Our economists believe that a satisfactory fiscal compact agreed upon at the summit next week should open the door to ECB quantitative easing, which we expect could come as soon as Q1 2012," wrote analysts at BNP Paribas (Other OTC: BNPQF.PK - news) .

But analysts at Societe Generale (Paris: FR0000130809 - news) warned a lack of progress on the root causes of the euro zone crisis will translate into wider bond yield spreads and a weaker euro, in January.

With the euro on the front foot for now, the dollar index slipped 0.1 percent to 78.307. Against the yen, the dollar was mildly bid at 77.83, still hemmed in a 77-78 range with investors wary of more massive intervention by Japan (EUREX: FMJP.EX - news) .

The New Zealand dollar tested this week's high set on Wednesday at $0.7824 for the third time in three straight sessions, but came slightly short of it, last changing hands at 0.7806. It has risen nearly 4 percent this week.

Support for the kiwi is seen around $0.7730, while the 55-day moving average at $0.7900 is likely to cap the topside.

The Australian dollar stood at $1.0222, not far off a three-week high of $1.0335 set earlier in the week.

Key (NYSE: KEY - news) resistance is seen around $1.0337, a level representing the 61.8 percent retracement of the November (Stuttgart: A0Z24E - news) decline. (Editing by Chris Gallagher)


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