Showing posts with label straight. Show all posts
Showing posts with label straight. Show all posts

Friday, 18 November 2011

FOREX-Dollar rises for 4th straight session on Europe woes

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* Stocks, commodity currencies fall in risk-averse market

* ECB buying push bond yields lower, initially lifts euro

* Euro zone official says no aid for Italy under EFSF

(Recasts, updates prices, adds comment, changes byline)

NEW YORK (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) , Nov 17 (Reuters) - The safe-haven dollar rose for a fourth straight session on Thursday in a risk-averse market that saw stocks and commodities sell off on concerns euro zone banking and fiscal problems could spread to healthier economies.

Commodity (Euronext: COMIN.NX - news) currencies such as the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand dollars as well as emerging market units posted sharp losses as investors grew frustrated the two-year old debt crisis is far from being resolved.

"I think this euro zone crisis could worsen before it gets better," said James Keegan, chief executive officer and chief investment officer at Seix Investment Advisors, in Upper Saddle River, New Jersey.

Keegan, who oversees assets of about $26 billion, pointed out that the threat of contagion is real and it is "questionable whether the euro zone as an entity would survive."

Bond yields in some of the debt-ridden euro zone countries such as Italy dropped from extreme levels, which suggested easing investor anxiety about the region's debt crisis. That initially underpinned the euro, but the support faded on more negative headlines on Italy.

One was on a comment from a euro zone official saying there are no plans for any financial assistance program for Italy under the euro zone bailout fund. [ID:nP6E7L300I].

By mid-afternoon, the dollar index, a gauge of its value against six currencies, rose 0.3 percent to 78.269 .

The euro was up slightly at $1.34748, having risen as high as $1.35403 on trading platform EBS. It had earlier fallen to a five-week low of $1.34210. Below there, key downside target lies near the Oct (KOSDAQ: 039200.KQ - news) . low of $1.3140.

Traders cited bids in the $1.3440 area.

Italian bond yields fell back below the critical 7 percent, a level widely deemed unsustainable, as Prime Minister Mario Monti unveiled sweeping reforms to dig the country out of crisis. The spread between French 10-year bond yields and German bunds also eased from record highs.

That helped the euro bounce back above $1.35 after three straight days of decline. The outlook for the common currency remains bleak, however, and it would likely resume weakness next week should it fail to go beyond $1.36, analysts said.

U.S. data showing initial jobless claims at a seven-month low last week and a strong rebound in future home construction also boosted appetite for risk and lifted the euro. For a wrapup in U.S. economic data, click on [ID:nN1E7AG0BT].

ECB BUYING

The European Central Bank buying of Italian and Spanish debt markets before and after the debt sales helped ease some pressure on yields but looked modest in size, traders said.

Pressure has grown on the ECB to take a greater role in tackling the crisis with Paris saying it should intervene more forcefully, but Germany and the ECB itself oppose that view.

Ronald Simpson, director of currency research at Action Economics in Tampa Florida said it's key for the ECB to at least continue what it's been doing until the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) is finalized and in operation.

"Right now if the ECB pulled away completely from its bond buying activity, we probably would see yields go through the roof. They've been basically the only buyers."

Seix's Keegan does not think the ECB would aggressively intervene in the fixed income market, much like what the Federal Reserve did in the U.S. bond market under its quantitative easing program.

"That bar for the ECB to come in is so much higher," Keegan said, adding that the bank would need to see a Lehman-type event before it actually steps in.

Against the yen, the euro was flat at 103.663 , rebounding from a five-week low of 103.40 set earlier on EBS. The dollar slipped 0.1 percent at 76.940 yen .

(Additional reporting by Wanfeng Zhou; Editing by Andrew Hay)


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Thursday, 17 November 2011

FOREX-Euro falls for 2nd straight day on contagion fears

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* Italian, Spanish yields rise as contagion fears grow

* Investors doubt Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) 's ability to contain debt crisis

* Euro/dollar nears support at $1.3481, yen strengthens (Adds comments, details, updates prices)

NEW YORK (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) , Nov 15 (Reuters) - The euro slipped against the dollar for a second straight day and hit a five-week low against the yen on Tuesday, with more selling expected on fears the euro zone's debt crisis is spreading across the region.

Yields on Italian benchmark 10-year bonds climbed back above the key 7 percent level widely deemed unsustainable and Spanish borrowing costs rose ahead of the launch of a new 10-year bond on Thursday. [GVD/EUR] In a worrying sign of contagion, the spread of French, Belgian and Austrian 10-year bond yields over German Bunds all hit their highest levels since the euro's launch in 1999, while the equivalent Dutch spread hit its widest since early 2009.

Adding to bearish sentiment, the German ZEW survey showed analyst and investor sentiment slumped in November (Stuttgart: A0Z24E - news) , the ninth monthly decline in a row. It said political and economic problems in Greece and Italy had raised uncertainty about the future. For details see [ID:nF9E7JH017].

"The collective markets' greatest fear has materialized: contagion is now reality," said Christopher Vecchio, currency analyst at DailyFX.com. "The seven percent threshold was supposed to be the line in the sand that the supranational European body would not allow Italian yields to cross, and for the second time in less than a week, Italian 10-year bonds were above this level."

The euro fell 0.6 percent to $1.3544, having dropped to a session trough of $1.3495 according to Reuters data. Key downside support lies around $1.3481, a one-month low set last week.

The euro zone common currency also lost 0.7 percent to 104.35 yen , after sliding as low as 103.95, the weakest since Oct (KOSDAQ: 039200.KQ - news) . 10.

DISORDERLY OUTCOME

The market's optimism over the new technocrat-led governments in Greece and Italy proved short-lived as investors refocused on worries about the ability of European policymakers to contain the deepening crisis, which German Chancellor Angela Merkel called Europe's "toughest hour since World War Two."

Lee Hardman, currency economist at BTMU in London, expects the euro to fall to around $1.25 over the next six months, saying there was a risk the market would start to price in a "disorderly outcome" to the crisis.

"The ultimate outcome is still unclear -- whether the euro zone moves closer to fiscal integration or whether there is a more disorderly break-up," Hardman said.

Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto, said repatriation flows have temporarily supported the euro but they will dry up, removing an important piece of support.

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Monday showed speculators trimmed bets against the euro in the week to Nov. 8, suggesting diminishing scope for a short-covering rebound in the common currency. [IMM/FX] The dollar slipped 0.1 percent to 77.02 yen , hovering around its 50-day simple moving average at 76.95 yen. It had earlier jumped to a high of 77.51 yen on trading platform EBS.

Dollar/yen has now broken through the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the move on intervention on an intraday basis for three straight days.

Traders said investors would likely sell the dollar on rallies as the yen was well placed to gain in a risk-averse environment despite the possibility of Japanese action to curb the yen's strength.

The dollar climbed to a five-week peak against the Swiss franc . (Reporting by Nick Olivari and Wanfeng Zhou; Editing by James Dalgleish)


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