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Wednesday, 23 November 2011
Forex Trading Weekly Forecast - 11.21.2011
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FOREX-Euro edges adult on short-covering though vulnerable
Fri Nov 18, 2011 7:03am GMT
* Euro in downtrend though dump approaching to be light -trader
* Mounting risk hatred supports dollar
* Aussie dips behind next relation vs USD
* Worries grow as European bank appropriation condition tightens
By Masayuki Kitano
SINGAPORE, Nov 18 (Reuters) – The euro edged aloft on
Friday as traders lonesome brief positions after a new drop
to a five-week low, though a singular banking was approaching to
remain in a downtrend amid fears a euro section debt predicament is
spiralling out of control.
Selling vigour on a euro has strong this week
on signs that contamination was swelling to core euro zone
countries such as France, and a banking is on lane for its
biggest one-week dump given early September.
The spotlight fell on Spain on Thursday, that had to pay
the top rate to sell a 10-year debt given 1997, only shy
of a 7 percent symbol seen as unsustainable.
The euro, however, showed some resilience in a wake
of a Spanish bond auction, removing a boost from short-covering
and holding above a five-week tray of $1.3421 strike on Thursday
on trade height EBS.
“The marketplace is really fervent to sell a euro and also
eager to take some profits,” pronounced Jesper Bargmann, Asia conduct of
G11 mark FX for RBS in Singapore. “So we are saying seductiveness on
the dips to buy.”
Such short-covering seductiveness is approaching to insist and
limit a speed of a euro’s declines, Bargmann said.
“There’s copiousness of two-way seductiveness in a euro now,” he
added. “There’s a lot of brief positions out there and people
are fervent to book some profit. So it’s not an easy trade.”
The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.3479, though is
still down roughly 2.4 percent for a week, on lane for its
biggest weekly commission decrease given early September.
The euro is approaching to exam a early Oct low of $1.3145
eventually, though a skirmish will substantially be gradual, said
Bargmann during RBS.
“I consider we’ll mangle $1.30 though we consider it’s going to be in a
fairly nurse fashion,” he said, adding that there were likely
to be some spikes and bouts of short-covering in between.
Support for a euro lies during around $1.3405, a 76.4
percent retracement of a Oct rally. The bottom of the
weekly Ichimoku cloud also offers support nearby that level,
coming in during $1.3408.
“The (euro’s) instruction is substantially toward the
downside though looking during how a marketplace has been relocating and
positioning, we have to be heedful of short-covering,” pronounced a
trader for a Japanese brokerage residence in Tokyo.
DOLLAR FUNDINS STRAINS
The deepening of a euro zone’s debt predicament has caused
heightened highlight in dollar appropriation markets this week.
The reward for swapping euros into dollars rose on
Thursday, with a three-month cross-currency basement barter around
6 basement points wider during -136 basement points, a many given the
2008 financial crisis.
“The delayed suit sight pile-up continues, with USD appropriation now
clearly a bigger emanate as contamination spreads some-more deeply into
Spain,” pronounced Sebastien Galy, strategist during Societe Generale.
The Australian dollar, that tends to come underneath vigour in
times of marketplace stress, dipped to a five-week low of
$0.9966 and was final down 0.3 percent during $0.9977.
“While risks to a downside seem some-more apparent, it’s
worth observant that a banking is now oversold on several
momentum-based indicators,” pronounced David Scutt, a merchant during Arab
Bank Australia in Sydney.
“Keeping this in mind, should any good news surrounding
Europe strike a screens, it’s approaching to see a Aussie spring
higher on a behind of brief covering.”
The dollar dipped 0.2 percent opposite a yen to 76.86
yen. Wariness about a probability that Japan may
intervene serve in a arise of a large yen-selling
intervention on Oct. 31, has lent support to a dollar
recently.
Increased signs of dollar-funding strains are another
factor ancillary a dollar, pronounced a merchant for a Japanese bank,
adding that dollar offers from Japanese exporters are approaching to
put downward vigour on a dollar towards a month-end.
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Tuesday, 22 November 2011
FOREX-Euro firms though opinion grave on swelling debt crisis
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FOREX-Euro rises on ECB lending hope, but down for 3rd week
{"s" : "039200.KQ,FMJP.EX,HX6.F,MXG1.BE,^REURUSD","k" : "a00,a50,b00,b60,c10,g00,h00,l10,p20,t10,v00","o" : "","j" : ""} 19:07, Friday 18 November 2011
* Short covering, ECB boost euro ahead of weekend
* Debt crisis still points to weaker single currency
* Interbank funding strains boost dollar demand (Updates prices, adds quotes and graphics)
NEW YORK (Frankfurt: A0DKRK - news) , Nov 18 (Reuters) - The euro rose against the dollar on Friday on the possibility the European Central Bank will lend to the International Monetary Fund to bail out bigger euro zone economies and as borrowing costs for Italy and Spain eased.
Sentiment on the euro, however, remained bearish, with the common currency headed for a third straight week of losses as fears persisted that the debt crisis could engulf major euro zone states such as France and trigger a break-up of the 17-nation bloc.
Yields on Italian and Spanish bonds eased after the ECB stepped in to stabilize the market, but fears remain that both countries' borrowing costs are at unsustainable levels. [ID:nL5E7MI24O]
Euro zone officials said there have been discussions that the ECB could lend to the IMF (Berlin: MXG1.BE - news) to provide the fund with enough money to bail out even the biggest euro zone countries. [ID:nL5E7MH2MW] Pressure has also mounted on the ECB to step up its bond purchases.
Either approach would be satisfactory, said Andrew Busch, senior currency strategist at BMO Capital Markets in Chicago, "The broader point is that the ECB is finding a way to stabilize the European debt crisis," he said.
"This third-party lending arrangement not only works around ECB laws, but also provides an avenue for the ECB to create enough funding to stabilize the crisis while maintaining its appearance of independence," he added.
The euro last traded up 0.5 percent at $1.3524 on Reuters data, pulling away from a five-week low of $1.3420 struck on Thursday. On the week, the euro was down 2 percent versus the dollar.
The euro's improvement reflects hope for a solution, rather than strong confidence that such a solution will be achieved, said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo.
"For the next week and in the context of choppy trading, our bias is for U.S. dollar strength and global currency weakness."
Many analysts believe the only way to stem the contagion in Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) is for the ECB to buy up large quantities of bonds, effectively the sort of "quantitative easing" undertaken by the U.S. and British central banks.
Bond market participants polled by Reuters saw a 50/50 chance that the ECB will expand bond purchases to engage in outright quantitative easing. [ID:nL9E7J203E]
Support for the euro lies near $1.3405, the 76.4 percent retracement of last month's rally from around $1.3144 on Oct (KOSDAQ: 039200.KQ - news) . 4 to a high of $1.4247 on Oct. 27.
Spanish elections set for Sunday could help support a rise in the euro against the dollar in the very near-term, because the opposition party, which is seen as favoring austerity measures, is expected to win. But most see a downward trend in the euro.
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Analysis of policy options [ID:nL5E7MF2XJ]
Other stories on euro zone debt crisis [ID:nL5E7LR1WL]
Countdown for euro zone rescue [ID:nL5E7MF2XJ]
Analysis on difficulty of breakup [ID:nL5E7MF1PJ]
Euro zone crisis in graphics http://r.reuters.com/hyb65p
Interactive timeline http://link.reuters.com/rev89r
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With investors shunning euro zone assets, funding strains were increasing for euro zone financial institutions. The premium for swapping euros into dollars rose, with the three-month cross-currency basis swap hitting its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. [ID:nN1E7AG18W]
Analysts said high funding costs were pushing banks into shorter duration funding and could spread into spot currency markets, weighing on the euro. [ID:nL5E7MG4HG]
Against the yen, the dollar slid as low as 76.575 on trading platform EBS , the weakest level since Japan (EUREX: FMJP.EX - news) 's massive intervention on Oct. 31. It was last down 0.1 percent at 76.92. (Additional reporting by Wanfeng Zhou in New York and Nia Williams in London; Editing by Leslie Adler)
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